How the Iran War Drove Big Oil’s Combined Q2 Profits to Nearly $93 Billion

The energy shock created a sharp divide between consumers and producers. War-related outages, curtailed Gulf exports and the near-standstill in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude prices higher. For large oil companies with substantial, relatively low-cost upstream operations, those higher realized prices flowed through to earnings faster than costs increased.

That explains how eight major producers—Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, Equinor, TotalEnergies and Eni—reported nearly $93 billion in combined net profit for April through June 2026, compared with less than $50 billion in the same quarter of 2025.

Why the disruption boosted profits

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for global energy trade. When fighting and maritime restrictions reduced flows, the market priced in both an immediate supply shortage and the possibility of a longer disruption. Reuters reported that the blockade cut off nearly one-fifth of global oil flows and led Gulf producers to shut in around 9 million barrels per day. Brent gained 64% in March and reached a peak of $118 a barrel in the period covered by the report.

Oil companies do not need every barrel they produce to be physically shipped through Hormuz to benefit from that shock. Crude is traded in an interconnected global market, so a disruption in a major exporting region can lift benchmark prices elsewhere. Producers then receive more revenue for their output, while costs such as existing production and infrastructure expenses may not rise at the same pace.

Refining margins also helped some integrated companies. NPR reported that higher crude prices and refining margins more than offset other pressures in the quarter. ExxonMobil earned $14.5 billion, Chevron $12.1 billion and Shell $9.8 billion; together, those three companies averaged roughly $404 million in profit per day.

Aramco led the earnings surge

Saudi Aramco was the largest contributor among the eight companies. It reported $33.4 billion in adjusted net income for the second quarter, up 33% from a year earlier.

The company’s official results also reported $25.4 billion in operating cash flow and $12.3 billion in free cash flow for the quarter. Aramco said its second-quarter free cash flow was affected by a $13.6 billion working-capital build, illustrating why profit and cash generation are not interchangeable measures.

Other reported results showed the same broad pattern, although the size of the increase varied by company and business mix. Chevron posted its highest quarterly earnings ever, Shell recorded its second-highest quarterly profit and ExxonMobil roughly doubled its year-over-year earnings.

Brent and WTI reacted in waves, not a straight line

Crude prices moved sharply as traders reassessed the likelihood of supply losses, military escalation and a reopening deal. Brent settled above $100 a barrel in late July after attacks on Saudi-linked oil tankers and further disruption to regional trade. On July 23, Brent settled at $100.69, while Reuters said the benchmark was nearly 40% above its level when the war began.

Prices later fell back as expectations of a ceasefire or partial reopening intermittently improved. By August 11, Brent settled at $88.91 and WTI at $83.20. On August 14, after the United States said its naval blockade of Iran could continue indefinitely and two vessels were attacked, Brent settled at $88.52 and WTI at $82.40.

The shipping data showed why the market remained nervous. Kpler data cited by Reuters indicated that only five commodity vessels crossed the strait on the Saturday of the August 15–16 weekend and none were registered on Sunday, compared with 31 the previous weekend. That later traffic collapse did not produce the already reported Q2 profits, but it raised the possibility of another earnings effect in subsequent quarters.

What it means for Canada and U.S. gasoline

Higher international benchmarks and WTI generally improve the revenue outlook for Canadian producers, although the benefit depends on the crude grade, transportation costs, differentials and each company’s hedging strategy. Reporting available for this analysis does not quantify Canadian producers’ aggregate hedge positions, so the immediate effect cannot be measured precisely. Canadian consumers can still face higher fuel costs because refined products are priced against global crude benchmarks.

In the United States, higher crude prices and transport-risk costs can raise wholesale gasoline costs and eventually pump prices. The pass-through is not instantaneous: refining capacity, inventories, regional fuel specifications, taxes and retail margins all affect what drivers pay. Available reporting confirms that gasoline prices rose sharply during the conflict, but it does not provide a reliable current nationwide pump-price figure.

Why the windfall revived tax proposals

The political backlash reflects a clear distributional problem: households face higher fuel and heating costs at the same time that producers benefit from prices elevated by war and constrained shipping. President Donald Trump criticized oil companies for making “too much money,” while lawmakers renewed calls to redirect some of the gains to consumers.

Senator Sheldon Whitehouse’s S.4111, the Big Oil Windfall Profits Tax Act, was introduced on March 17, 2026, and referred to the Senate Finance Committee. The bill would impose an excise tax on crude oil and rebate the proceeds to individual taxpayers.

The scale of the debate is also shaped by Wood Mackenzie’s estimate that the global upstream oil and gas sector could generate a $495 billion cash windfall in 2026 if Brent averages about $90 a barrel. That is a scenario-based forecast, not a guaranteed profit figure; the estimate is highly sensitive to the future oil-price path.

Could a reopening erase the gains?

Yes. A durable ceasefire and reliable reopening of Hormuz would remove much of the scarcity and geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices. If withheld Gulf supply returned while non-OPEC production continued growing, the market could move toward oversupply in 2027, putting downward pressure on prices and producer earnings.

That outcome is a plausible scenario rather than a settled forecast. The central lesson from the 2026 earnings surge is that oil-company profits responded not simply to the existence of war, but to the interaction of lost supply, shipping risk, benchmark prices and the market’s expectations about how long the disruption would last.