What is the status of the escalating ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz as the US Iran ceasefire approaches its Monday expiration with no renewal deal in sight, including details on the number of vessels hit, the involved parties' accusations, the slowdown in shipping traffic,

Shipping traffic near standstill

• Transit through the Strait of Hormuz "appeared to grind to a near standstill" on Friday, Aug 14, after the latest attacks and new US threats .
• Earlier in July, just 25 ships passed through the strait in a single day (down from 49 the previous day), according to maritime data firm Kpler — a 50% drop . The waterway normally carries about a fifth of the world's daily oil and LNG supply .

Deadlocked negotiations and Iran's expanded demands

• On Aug 8, Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a sweeping set of conditions for reopening the strait. Secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr said the US must:
  • Permanently end the war with Iran and its allies
  • Lift the US naval blockade
  • Drop all sanctions
  • Withdraw troops from around the country
  • "Correct its behavior" and never threaten Iran again
• Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, stated on Aug 9 that no direct negotiations are ongoing between Tehran and Washington, and that intermediaries are still trying to find a way to resume talks .
• Both sides are laying out increasingly expansive demands rather than converging . The earlier June memorandum of understanding that paused hostilities has effectively collapsed .

US economic and military coercion

• On Aug 13, the US said it can maintain a naval blockade of Iran "indefinitely" and vowed to ratchet up economic pressure as the ceasefire deadline approaches .
• On Aug 14, the US warned it would step up economic pressure further after the two latest ship attacks .
• Previous rounds of coercion included: revoking Iran's oil sales license (July 7) ; launching hundreds of strikes on Iranian targets in retaliation for ship attacks ; and Trump demanding compensation from Iran for deaths linked to the conflict .

Oil and gasoline prices

• Brent crude settled at $88.52/barrel on Aug 14, up $1.45 (1.67%) on the day, with WTI at $85.38/barrel .
• The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 oil demand forecast by 1.6 million barrels per day, citing the Hormuz disruption .
• US gasoline prices are rising as reduced crude shipments through Hormuz pressure domestic refineries; Trump has warned drivers to brace for higher costs .
• Oil briefly traded above $90/barrel in mid-July when traffic nearly halted .

Expert assessments

• Diplomatic sources describe the talks as not developing into an agreement or even a memorandum of understanding at this stage, with Iran's conflicting demands leaving a deal out of reach .
• Analysts note that Iran has effectively frontloaded all its key demands (withdrawal of US threat, financial relief, and Iranian management of the strait) while deferring discussion of its nuclear program — a non-starter for the Trump administration .
• The risk of a prolonged stalemate is high. With no direct US-Iran talks underway, the Oman-mediated channel appears insufficient to close the gap, and both sides are hardening their positions .