The core demand — Countries must "pick sides" and cannot remain in both U.S.-led and China-led AI frameworks. The draft letter states: "To be part of everything is to be part of nothing." Signing the Pax Silica Declaration is described as "not merely a membership subscription, but a commitment to a shared set of values and security objectives."

The penalty — Joining China's World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organisation (WAICO) will result in exclusion from Pax Silica, including its cooperative frameworks for AI models, semiconductors, and critical mineral supply chains.

The trigger — The ultimatum follows the launch of WAICO in Shanghai on July 16, 2026, with 29 founding members including Russia, Brazil, and Kazakhstan. Chinese President Xi Jinping pitched WAICO as a rival to Pax Silica, promoting open-weight AI model development and AI access for the Global South.

The broader competition

Pax Silica, launched by U.S. Under Secretary of State Jacob Helberg in December 2025, is the State Department's flagship effort to secure AI and semiconductor supply chains — from critical minerals through advanced manufacturing to AI infrastructure — while reducing dependence on China. WAICO, by contrast, is positioned as a China-led intergovernmental body oriented toward developing nations, with an emphasis on sharing AI technology and open-weight models.

Kazakhstan is a focal point because it is simultaneously a Pax Silica signatory, a WAICO founding member, and a source of critical minerals essential to the AI supply chain — making it a direct test case for the U.S. demand to choose. No other nation is known to hold dual membership.

The draft letter signals that Washington views AI cooperation as a zero-sum competition where dual alignment is unacceptable. For countries in the Global South, the choice may come with significant economic and geopolitical consequences as both superpowers compete to shape the future of artificial intelligence.

The core demand — Countries must "pick sides" and cannot remain in both U.S.-led and China-led AI frameworks. The draft letter states: "To be part of everything is to be part of nothing." Signing the Pax Silica Declaration is described as "not merely a membership subscription, but a commitment to a shared set of values and security objectives."

The penalty — Joining China's World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organisation (WAICO) will result in exclusion from Pax Silica, including its cooperative frameworks for AI models, semiconductors, and critical mineral supply chains.

The trigger — The ultimatum follows the launch of WAICO in Shanghai on July 16, 2026, with 29 founding members including Russia, Brazil, and Kazakhstan. Chinese President Xi Jinping pitched WAICO as a rival to Pax Silica, promoting open-weight AI model development and AI access for the Global South.

The broader competition

Pax Silica, launched by U.S. Under Secretary of State Jacob Helberg in December 2025, is the State Department's flagship effort to secure AI and semiconductor supply chains — from critical minerals through advanced manufacturing to AI infrastructure — while reducing dependence on China. WAICO, by contrast, is positioned as a China-led intergovernmental body oriented toward developing nations, with an emphasis on sharing AI technology and open-weight models.

Kazakhstan is a focal point because it is simultaneously a Pax Silica signatory, a WAICO founding member, and a source of critical minerals essential to the AI supply chain — making it a direct test case for the U.S. demand to choose. No other nation is known to hold dual membership.

The draft letter signals that Washington views AI cooperation as a zero-sum competition where dual alignment is unacceptable. For countries in the Global South, the choice may come with significant economic and geopolitical consequences as both superpowers compete to shape the future of artificial intelligence.