Chile Cuts 2026 Copper Output Forecast to 5.27M Tons as Supply Woes Boost Prices

H2 2026 Partial Recovery

Cochilco expects a partial rebound in the second half of 2026, driven by improvements at:

• El Teniente (Codelco) – mine improvements
• Rajo Inca (Codelco) – project progress
• Quebrada Blanca (Teck) – greater operational stability
• Mantoverde (Capstone Copper) – return to normal operations
• Collahuasi – ongoing contributions

The agency cautioned that the recovery still has room to materialize and remains uncertain .

2027 Production Forecast: 5.55 Million Metric Tons

Cochilco projects 5.55 million tons of Chilean copper output in 2027, representing a rebound as new projects and operational improvements take hold, supported by a low comparative baseline .

Copper Price Forecast: Raised for 2026, Maintained for 2027

• 2026 average: Cochilco raised its forecast to $5.95 per pound, up from $5.55 in its May estimate, citing tight global supply, strong demand, and prices near record highs .
• 2027 average: maintained at $5.10 per pound .

Copper was trading above $6 per pound in New York at the time of the update .

Global Copper Demand

Cochilco projects global refined copper demand of 27.8 million tons in 2026 (1.5% growth), rising to 28.8 million tons in 2027 (2.3% growth). China accounts for nearly 58% of global consumption .

Impact of US Tariffs on Refined Copper Imports

The White House has already acted on copper tariffs under Section 232 national security authorities:

• As of August 1, 2025: 50% tariffs on semi-finished copper products and derivative articles .
• Effective April 6, 2026: a 50% tariff on the full value of articles made entirely or almost entirely of copper, including refined copper .
• June 2026 amendment: adjusted the tariff regime; the changes are set to remain in place until December 31, 2027 .
• A phased universal tariff on refined copper of 15% in 2027 and 30% in 2028 had been recommended by the Commerce Secretary, though the current 50% flat rate is in effect .

The tariffs add upward pressure to US copper prices by restricting imports, which helps support Cochilco's elevated price forecasts but also creates uncertainty for Chilean exporters and the global refined copper trade .