What did Berkeley Earth report in August 2026 about the likelihood that 2026 will become the hottest year on record, what factors are driving this forecast, and what concurrent extreme heat events, policy responses, and climate developments were occurring globally in mid-2026?

Driving factors:

• A rapidly strengthening El Niño that emerged in June 2026, much more powerful than initially forecast .
• Human-caused global warming providing the underlying baseline of elevated temperatures .
• Record-high ocean heat — July 2026 recorded the highest average sea surface temperature ever measured for the month across extrapolar oceans .
• Scientists described this as a "one-two punch" of accelerated warming plus a supersized El Niño making record heat increasingly likely .

Important caveat: Different agencies used different methodologies. NOAA's outlook in August 2026 calculated there was no chance 2026 would top 2024, giving a 61% probability it would be second- or third-warmest . The divergence reflects differences in how each group models the El Niño's future trajectory and its lagged effect on global temperatures.

Concurrent Extreme Heat Events in Mid-2026

Europe experienced its worst heatwave season on record:

• Western Europe had its hottest June–July period ever recorded, with an average temperature of 21.62°C (70.9°F), about 2.79°C above the 1991–2020 average .
• Successive heatwaves began in May 2026 and continued through August, with some countries facing their fourth heatwave of the season by early August .
• A peak temperature of 46.5°C (115.7°F) was recorded at Noto, Sicily, Italy on 22 July 2026 .
• The extreme heat fueled widespread wildfires, prolonged drought, and thousands of projected heat-related deaths .

Global context:

• July 2026 was the joint second-warmest July on record globally, with average surface air temperatures 1.47°C above the pre-industrial baseline .
• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that extreme heat was becoming more frequent, intense, and longer-lasting globally, driven by climate change rather than El Niño alone .
• Record land and sea surface temperatures, along with drought, wildfires, and floods, defined the state of the climate in July and early August 2026 .

Policy Responses and Climate Developments

UN climate negotiations:

• The Bonn Climate Conference (June 8–18, 2026) brought nearly 200 countries together for mid-year technical talks focused on turning previous commitments into practical action, but key issues remained unresolved — adaptation finance, the Adaptation Fund, mitigation ambition, and carbon markets were largely stalled heading into COP31 .
• COP31 was scheduled for November 2026 in Antalya, Turkey .
• The Global Climate Action Agenda mid-year snapshot noted that more than 120 "Plans to Accelerate Solutions" had been launched since COP30 in Belém (November 2025), and action was advancing across boardrooms, city halls, and farms .
• Geneva Climate Summit (August 2026): Over 190 countries signed a new global climate deal committing to halve carbon emissions by 2030, including phasing out coal and boosting green technology funding for developing nations .

National developments:

• Oman released a new climate plan with an absolute emissions reduction target of up to 33% over 2024–2035, depending on international support .
• The UNFCCC reported that by mid-2026 it had received 77 Adaptation Communications, 75 National Adaptation Plans, and 170 Nationally Determined Contributions containing adaptation components .
• The European Parliament published analysis marking 10 years since the Paris Agreement, noting that full implementation of current pledges would lead to a global temperature increase well above 1.5°C .

WMO and WHO warnings:

• The WMO stated that periods of extreme heat are becoming more frequent, intense, and longer-lasting as climate change warms the planet .
• The WMO stressed that global warming and high-pressure systems, not El Niño alone, were the primary drivers of Europe's heatwaves .