OSINT analysis by Defense Express indicated the drones penetrated at least four layers of Russian air defenses to reach the target .

The June 18 Strike

Two days later, Ukraine struck the same refinery again in one of its largest drone attacks on Moscow since the start of the full-scale war . Russian officials reported that at least 194 drones were intercepted on approach to Moscow . Verified videos showed multiple fires at the refinery, with OSINT analysts reporting hits on several key processing units . The attack also forced the evacuation of Russia's biggest airport and disrupted flights across all Moscow airports . No casualties were reported.

Damage Assessment: Euro+ Complex Knocked Offline for Months

The combined effect of the two strikes was catastrophic for the refinery's production capacity.

• Both primary crude processing units were disabled — the June 16 strike knocked out one unit, and the June 18 strike took out the other, halting 100% of crude oil processing at the plant .
• On June 24, Reuters reported, citing two industry sources, that the refinery would need at least six months of repairs and was unlikely to resume production before 2027 . The Euro+ crude processing complex was specifically identified as having suffered critical damage .
• As of July 27 — more than six weeks after the strikes — the refinery remained fully halted with no partial operations resumed. A Reuters roundup on that date listed the Moscow refinery as still "halted operations" with no indication of any unit restarting .

The refinery's supply of roughly 40% of Moscow's fuel was effectively removed from the market .

Zelenskyy's Justification

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine was behind both strikes and framed them as a direct, justified response to Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities .

• On June 16, he said the strike "shows Ukraine's reach" and that such attacks would continue as "long-range sanctions" against Russia's war machine .
• On June 18, he wrote on social media: "This is a fully justified response to Russian attacks on our cities and communities" . Kyiv specifically cited a Russian strike that had damaged the nearly 1,000-year-old Pechersk Lavra monastery complex in Kyiv earlier that week as the proximate trigger for the June 18 attack . Russia denied striking the monastery .

Zelenskyy described the overall campaign as "long-range sanctions" designed to force Moscow to the negotiating table and deprive Russia of revenue to fund its war .

Moscow's Response

Russia condemned the strikes and threatened escalation. The Kremlin described the attacks as "terrorist acts" against civilian infrastructure and warned that Ukraine would face consequences .

Within hours of the June 18 strike, Russian officials signaled that retaliatory action was imminent .

Russia's Retaliatory Precision Strikes on Ukraine

Russia retaliated with a major escalation of its own long-range strikes against Ukrainian defense and energy infrastructure.

• On the night of July 1-2, Russia launched a massive coordinated drone and missile attack on Kyiv, killing at least 17 civilians and wounding scores more . Moscow explicitly described this as retaliation for the Ukrainian strikes on oil facilities that had caused fuel shortages and put pressure on President Putin .
• Throughout the weeks following the June strikes, Russia intensified its campaign of precision strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and defense facilities, targeting power grids, substations, and military industrial sites across the country as part of a broader retaliation pattern .

The strikes on the Moscow Oil Refinery marked a strategic escalation in Ukraine's deep-strike campaign, successfully taking a major fuel-supply asset offline for what industry sources assessed as at least six months to a year, while drawing a major Russian retaliatory wave against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure.

OSINT analysis by Defense Express indicated the drones penetrated at least four layers of Russian air defenses to reach the target .

The June 18 Strike

Two days later, Ukraine struck the same refinery again in one of its largest drone attacks on Moscow since the start of the full-scale war . Russian officials reported that at least 194 drones were intercepted on approach to Moscow . Verified videos showed multiple fires at the refinery, with OSINT analysts reporting hits on several key processing units . The attack also forced the evacuation of Russia's biggest airport and disrupted flights across all Moscow airports . No casualties were reported.

Damage Assessment: Euro+ Complex Knocked Offline for Months

The combined effect of the two strikes was catastrophic for the refinery's production capacity.

• Both primary crude processing units were disabled — the June 16 strike knocked out one unit, and the June 18 strike took out the other, halting 100% of crude oil processing at the plant .
• On June 24, Reuters reported, citing two industry sources, that the refinery would need at least six months of repairs and was unlikely to resume production before 2027 . The Euro+ crude processing complex was specifically identified as having suffered critical damage .
• As of July 27 — more than six weeks after the strikes — the refinery remained fully halted with no partial operations resumed. A Reuters roundup on that date listed the Moscow refinery as still "halted operations" with no indication of any unit restarting .

The refinery's supply of roughly 40% of Moscow's fuel was effectively removed from the market .

Zelenskyy's Justification

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine was behind both strikes and framed them as a direct, justified response to Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities .

• On June 16, he said the strike "shows Ukraine's reach" and that such attacks would continue as "long-range sanctions" against Russia's war machine .
• On June 18, he wrote on social media: "This is a fully justified response to Russian attacks on our cities and communities" . Kyiv specifically cited a Russian strike that had damaged the nearly 1,000-year-old Pechersk Lavra monastery complex in Kyiv earlier that week as the proximate trigger for the June 18 attack . Russia denied striking the monastery .

Zelenskyy described the overall campaign as "long-range sanctions" designed to force Moscow to the negotiating table and deprive Russia of revenue to fund its war .

Moscow's Response

Russia condemned the strikes and threatened escalation. The Kremlin described the attacks as "terrorist acts" against civilian infrastructure and warned that Ukraine would face consequences .

Within hours of the June 18 strike, Russian officials signaled that retaliatory action was imminent .

Russia's Retaliatory Precision Strikes on Ukraine

Russia retaliated with a major escalation of its own long-range strikes against Ukrainian defense and energy infrastructure.

• On the night of July 1-2, Russia launched a massive coordinated drone and missile attack on Kyiv, killing at least 17 civilians and wounding scores more . Moscow explicitly described this as retaliation for the Ukrainian strikes on oil facilities that had caused fuel shortages and put pressure on President Putin .
• Throughout the weeks following the June strikes, Russia intensified its campaign of precision strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and defense facilities, targeting power grids, substations, and military industrial sites across the country as part of a broader retaliation pattern .

The strikes on the Moscow Oil Refinery marked a strategic escalation in Ukraine's deep-strike campaign, successfully taking a major fuel-supply asset offline for what industry sources assessed as at least six months to a year, while drawing a major Russian retaliatory wave against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure.