Super El Niño 2026: Global Crop Production, Food Security, and the Price Risks Ahead

The 2026 super El Niño is forecast to be one of the strongest on record — potentially historic in intensity — with effects peaking between September and December 2026 and persisting into 2027 . The event is already disrupting planting cycles and raising food security alarms across multiple continents.

49 million more people at risk of acute hunger

The World Food Programme (WFP) projects that this El Niño could push an additional 49 million people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, raising the global total to 274 million across 45 vulnerable countries . Central America and Southern Africa are expected to be the hardest-hit regions . The WFP has activated expanded preparedness and anticipatory action across 18 countries .

Acute food insecurity in Central America could increase by 83%, with Southern Africa also facing severe rainfall deficits . Southern Madagascar is already experiencing a rainfall deficit of over 300mm over a 90-day period .

Price shock scenarios across staple commodities

StoneX warns that the crop damage likely to lift food prices is expected to land between September and December 2026, with Indian wheat area and Southeast Asian palm oil production sitting at the front of the transmission chain .

The FAO's chief economist has stated that the world is on the verge of another bout of food inflation, citing wars in Iran and Ukraine alongside El Niño as creating a "perfect storm" of higher costs and lower yields . FAO's benchmark Food Price Index hit a three-year high in July 2026, averaging 131.1 points — with wheat surging 5.8% month-on-month, and vegetable oils reaching their highest level since June 2022 .

The World Bank (June 2026) puts the probability of El Niño persisting into 2027 at 61–87% and warns that rice output could fall by 20–50% in affected regions, with South Asia, Southern Africa, and parts of East Asia most exposed .

Reported price shock scenarios from commodity analysts include:

• Core commodities (wheat, maize, soy): 10–50% price increases possible
• Rice, palm oil, sugarcane, coffee: 50–100% price spikes under severe disruption scenarios

Goldman Sachs has estimated the event could cause a 15.8% surge in global food commodity prices .

Resilience factors: why this El Niño may be different

Reuters (Aug 11, 2026) notes that near-record inventories of farm goods, technological advances in crop genetics, and the emergence of Brazil and Russia as key exporters have made the global food system substantially more resilient than in past major El Niño events . The FAO's Food Outlook report also notes that 2026/27 cereal production is forecast to remain historically elevated, though easing from record highs .

These buffers could moderate the worst price spikes and mean disruptions are "much less severe than they would have been in previous decades," according to analysts cited by Reuters .

Regional breakdown

Region	Key risks
India	Wheat area at the front of the transmission chain for price shocks ; monsoon disruption threatens both summer and winter cropping cycles; S&P Global flags India among countries with largest downside risk
Malaysia & Indonesia	Palm oil production sits at the front of El Niño transmission; drought typically reduces yields with a lag of several months
Central America	Projected to be among the hardest-hit regions; number of people facing food insecurity could rise 83%
Southern Africa	Expected to be one of the hardest-hit regions; rainfall deficits already emerging
Across Africa	Southern Madagascar already experiencing a 300mm+ rainfall deficit over 90 days ; 18 countries have expanded anticipatory action plans coordinated by FAO and WFP seeking to protect nearly 9 million people
Brazil & Australia	S&P Global flags these as countries with largest downside risk from weather-driven volatility ; however, Argentina is a potential beneficiary from improved rainfall
Latin America generally	El Niño typically brings heavier rainfall to southern South America (benefiting Argentina) while increasing drought risks further north, affecting the Caribbean and the Amazon

Anticipatory action underway

In June 2026, the FAO and WFP issued a joint appeal for anticipatory action at scale across 22 countries, seeking to protect nearly 9 million people through cash assistance, drought-tolerant seeds, livestock protection, water harvesting, and early warning information .

The key caveat

The global food system enters this event with stronger buffers than in prior major El Niños — historically high grain stocks, improved crop genetics, and expanded export capacity from Brazil and Russia provide a cushion . This means price spikes may be less severe and less sustained than the 2007–08 or 2010–11 analogues, though the human toll in the most vulnerable countries remains acute and the WFP's estimate of 49 million additional people facing acute hunger reflects that reality .