Super El Niño 2026: NOAA Forecasts 69% Chance of Strongest Event Since 1950 — What to Expect Globally

Ocean Heat at Historic Highs

The global average sea surface temperature (SST) outside polar regions hit 20.96°C (69.73°F) in July 2026 — the hottest July on record, surpassing the previous high set in 2023 . Both global SST and upper 2000-meter ocean heat content reached all-time highs in 2024 and have continued rising into 2026 . The Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed that daily SSTs exceeded 2023 and 2024 record levels starting June 21, 2026 .

Pacific Warming Well Past the "Very Strong" Threshold

Eastern Pacific waters are already 2°C above average in the key Niño 3.4 region, crossing the threshold that defines a "very strong" (super) El Niño . European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models project SSTs could climb as high as 3°C above average in the central equatorial Pacific by December, with some scenarios showing anomalies above 4°C . For context, a strong event is defined as more than 1.5°C above average, and a very strong one as above 2°C .

Unusually Rapid Intensification

Forecasters note this El Niño has already broken records for intensity at its early stages and is strengthening faster than typical events . Both oceanic and atmospheric indices — including the Southern Oscillation Index — now reflect values consistent with a strong, firmly established El Niño, with further intensification expected through the southern hemisphere spring . The Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) confirms that all models forecast the tropical Pacific to continue warming, likely peaking in late spring or summer and persisting into autumn 2027 .

Global Weather Impacts by Region

Eastern Africa & Kenya

The main near-term concern is drought during July–September 2026, with abnormal heat posing a persistent threat across eastern Africa . Below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures are anticipated across large parts of Ethiopia, northern Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda, likely affecting crops and livestock . Wetter conditions are expected in some parts of East Africa later as the event matures, but the immediate risk is food security stress . The International Rescue Committee warns that Kenya faces an 80–82% chance of El Niño persisting through 2026, with dry conditions giving way to a high risk of flooding and landslides later in the year .

Sri Lanka

The WMO has warned of an 80% probability of rapid development into a strong El Niño between July and September 2026, which "will intensify chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves" . Sri Lanka's Environment Minister Dhammika Patabendi said the country is preparing for a severe dry spell until the end of September, followed by a north-east monsoon beginning in October that could lead to "widespread flooding" . Central banks in the region, including Sri Lanka, have already hiked interest rates in anticipation of food price pressures .

Indonesia & Southeast Asia

El Niño typically brings drought and delayed monsoons to Indonesia, threatening rice harvests and food supplies . The Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) expects an increased risk of drought during the second half of 2026, with the peak dry season between August and September . The Philippines, South Korea, and Pakistan have also seen central bank policy responses to rising food costs .

Israel & Middle East

El Niño events often bring drier-than-normal conditions to the eastern Mediterranean . The broader region faces abnormal heat threats .

South America

Heavy rains are expected in parts of South America, threatening harvests . The Amazon and Central America experienced severe drought during the 2023-24 event and are again at risk . Areas of northern South America and Central America face abnormal heat .

Global Temperature Context

Global mean surface temperature in 2024 reached 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels — the first full calendar year above the 1.5°C threshold . The 2023-24 El Niño contributed to that record, and the 2026 event is expected to push global temperatures even higher . A study in Nature found that under a strong El Niño scenario, global mean surface temperature from July 2023 to June 2024 had a 90% chance of breaking the historical record .

California Implications: Rainfall and Coastal Sea Levels

Wetter Winter Forecast

A super El Niño "is going to significantly shift the odds in favor of a particularly wet winter, especially in Southern California" . Climate models show elevated chances of heavy precipitation across the western and south-eastern US . The European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts model gives California a 70%–100% chance of above-average rainfall along its coast . Climate scientist Daniel Swain of UC Agriculture and Natural Resources notes that a very strong El Niño is "perhaps also an early warning indicator of increased risk of large-scale flood events" .

Record Sea Levels

Scientists at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography say California is facing "likely the highest sea levels ever recorded on the California coast" associated with this event . The combination of El Niño-driven ocean warming, elevated sea levels, and high tides could push water levels up to a foot higher than normal along the coast, the Bay, and even up the Sacramento River . Swain expects an average 6 inches to 2 feet of temporary sea-level rise, with 2 to 3-plus feet possible during a major storm event .

Flooding and Erosion Risk

The convergence of record-high sea levels, storm surge, and extreme high tides during winter storms raises the risk of widespread and damaging coastal flooding, erosion, and powerful waves along California's shoreline . Warmer-than-normal water temperatures along the US West Coast are expected from late summer through winter . The South Coast of California and the Bay Area are both under elevated threat, with experts warning of "particularly dangerous" winter conditions .

Timing of Peak Impacts

The most significant impacts for California are expected from late December through March . El Niño conditions are forecast to persist through spring 2027 .