The 2026 Super El Niño Is on Track to Be the Strongest on Record: Key Metrics, Regional Impacts, and What to Expect

North American Snowfall Patterns: The Great North-South Divide

A strong El Niño shifts the Pacific jet stream southward, creating a sharp north–south divide in snowfall across the United States . The northern U.S. and Canada can expect drier, warmer conditions with reduced snowfall, while the southern tier gets wetter, stormier weather .

"Snow jackpot" zones are expected in the southwestern U.S., the southern and central Plains, the Southeast, and southern Appalachia. In these regions, cold-air collisions with the active southern storm track can produce heavy snow . The Farmers' Almanac predicts quick bursts of snow and bitter cold across the North, and a tricky mix of rain, sleet, ice, and heavy wet snow in the Northeast . The Upper Midwest, in contrast, can expect fewer routine snowfall opportunities compared to an average winter . It is important to note that NOAA states seasonal snowfall accumulations cannot be forecast more than about a week in advance .

California Coastal Flooding: A Triple Threat

The combination of El Niño-driven sea level spikes, king tides, and long-term sea-level rise poses a severe threat to the California coast. Scripps Institution of Oceanography's Mark Merrifield says "We're expecting likely the highest sea levels ever recorded on the California coast associated with this event" . This could push coastal waters up to a foot higher than normal in some areas .

The National Weather Service has already warned of king tides causing minor flooding along the Marin County coastline and Bay Area shorelines . Experts warn of widespread damaging coastal flooding, beach erosion, and powerful waves up and down the California coast . NOAA notes that El Niño combined with high-tide flooding creates a "double whammy" for many U.S. coastal locations .

Regional Weather Risks: Brazil, Botswana, and Fiji

The impacts of this El Niño will be felt across the globe, with specific risks for each region.

Brazil is bracing for a triple threat of droughts, floods, and fires, with different regions affected differently . A government technical note from INPE, INMET, Funceme, and CENSIPAM confirms an elevated El Niño risk . Brazil's loss of native vegetation—more than twice the size of France in 40 years—has increased its vulnerability to these extremes . Above-average rainfall is also forecast for parts of northern South America, while the Amazon may face drying .

Botswana and Southern Africa face high concern from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), which notes that El Niño typically brings below-average rainfall and drought conditions to the region during its peak phase . The NOAA Global Weather Hazards report also flags abnormal heat and dryness risks across parts of central and southern Africa .

Fiji and the Southwest Pacific are also at risk from this El Niño, which typically brings drier conditions and elevated drought risk to the region. The FEWS NET tracker highlights drought and extreme heat as primary concerns for the wider Oceania area during strong El Niño events .

Broader Global Picture

The WMO says above-normal temperatures are expected worldwide, with wetter conditions in some regions and drought in others . The UN World Food Programme warns that 49 million more people could face acute hunger due to El Niño effects beginning in September 2026 . Furthermore, 2026 is very likely to set a new annual global temperature record, with 2027 also at risk .