Who Really Controls the Strait of Hormuz?

A separate motion introduced in July, called the "Strategic Action for the Security and Sustainable Progress of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf," has also been tabled by hardline lawmakers .

Iran's Six Conditions for Reopening

Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, laid out six conditions for fully reopening the waterway, according to state media :

1. An end to U.S. threats and insults against Iran
2. An end to the U.S. war and withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region
3. Lifting of the U.S. naval blockade
4. Lifting of sanctions
5. U.S. financial compensation for war damages
6. Release of Iranian assets

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that the Oman deal alone will not reopen the strait — the U.S. must meet Iran's conditions first . The Revolutionary Guard separately stated on August 8 that reopening "does not depend on talks" but solely on U.S. acceptance of Iran's terms .

Shipping Traffic: A 97% Collapse

Traffic has plummeted from a pre-war baseline. Before the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, roughly 70 vessels per day carrying crude, fuels, LNG, and other products transited the Strait . By late May 2026, average daily transits had fallen to less than 7, and have averaged less than 6 vessels a day . A peer-reviewed satellite and AIS analysis published in April 2026 documented a 97% decline in vessel activity through the strait in the first week after the strikes .

By the numbers:

• On August 11, 2026, traffic fell to just six vessels — four commodity ships including two empty oil product tankers — compared with a 10-day average of about 11 .
• On July 17, only three commodity vessels crossed, the fewest since May .
• In pre-war days, roughly 130 to 140 ships typically transited the strait daily .

Oil Market Impact: Brent Above $89

Brent crude has surged well above $89 per barrel as the standoff persists. Key price movements include:

• On August 12, 2026, Brent traded at $89.67/bbl, up 0.86% on the day and rising for the sixth consecutive session .
• On August 10, Brent settled at $87.72/bbl after a 5% single-day jump following Iran and the U.S. trading compensation demands .
• On August 2, Brent briefly touched $90.12/bbl after a Houthi missile attack disrupted shipping further .

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 2026 Brent forecast to an average of $86.81/bbl, citing "severe disruptions" through August .

The Iran-Oman Negotiations: A Limited Shipping Corridor

On August 5, 2026, Iran and Oman reached an understanding on geographic coordinates for a new, limited shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, with a joint announcement being finalized . The proposed deal would give Iran control over ships entering the Gulf through the strait — a major concession, if enacted .

But Iran has repeatedly stressed that this agreement is not a reopening. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the Oman deal is "on the verge of being finalised" only if third parties do not interfere , while the Revolutionary Guard insisted on August 8 that reopening "is not related to Iran-Oman negotiations" . As of August 10-11, Iran maintained the strait will stay closed until the U.S. meets its conditions .

Diplomatic Stalemate: Both Sides Demand Compensation

Both sides are now demanding compensation from the other. On August 11, Trump said the U.S. would demand compensation from Iran for deaths and injuries linked to conflicts over several decades, mirroring Iran's demand for war reparations . No direct U.S.-Iran talks have resumed.

The U.S. blockade remains in effect de jure, while de facto, the strait is largely closed by a combination of Iranian threats, naval attacks, and the unwillingness of commercial shipping to risk transit. The Oman corridor deal offers a potential narrow channel, but Iran has made clear it will not operate without broader U.S. concessions — which Washington has not given.

In the meantime, global energy markets remain under severe stress, with no clear path to reopening the world's most strategically important waterway.