Strait of Hormuz Standoff Drives Oil Higher and Reshapes FX Markets

The loonie found support from persistently elevated oil prices driven by geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz, as well as strong Canadian employment data released the previous Friday . However, a resilient US dollar, buoyed by safe-haven demand and anticipation of Wednesday's CPI release, limited further downside .

Commerzbank warns: CAD's recovery is fragile

Commerzbank warned that the Canadian dollar's recent recovery — backed by a softer USD and firmer oil — is fragile because potential new US tariffs (50% tariffs on a wide range of Canadian goods are due to take effect August 19) could quickly reverse gains and spike USD/CAD volatility .

Indeed, speculators had already raised net short loonie positions to $12.5 billion as of late July, making the Canadian dollar the most heavily shorted currency among major economies . The same Reuters report noted that the loonie had hit a 14-month low of 1.4248 per USD in the preceding month .

Key risk date: August 19, 2026

Analysts at Commerzbank and elsewhere flagged August 19 as a key risk event for the loonie. On this date, President Trump's 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods are due to take effect if no agreement is reached under the USMCA, a threat that could quickly undermine recent real-economy improvements in Canada .

Indian Rupee (INR) tumbles to two-week low despite RBI intervention

The Indian rupee slumped to a two-week low, closing near 95.43 per USD on Tuesday, as surging oil prices and waning optimism over a US-Iran deal pressured the currency .

The Reserve Bank of India stepped in by selling dollars through state-run banks to mitigate the decline, but selling pressure remained intense as Brent crude neared $88-90 per barrel amid stalled US-Iran talks . The rupee had been expected to open in the 95.35-95.40 range on Tuesday, according to traders .

The RBI's intervention has been described as "consistent" and effective at capping losses near current levels, but the fundamental pressure from higher oil prices — a major import for India — remains acute .

British Pound (GBP) holds near $1.3500 as traders await macro data

GBP/USD held near the $1.3500 psychological mark on Tuesday, seesawing between tepid gains and minor losses as traders awaited two major macro releases: Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and UK GDP data .

The WSJ close on Monday was 1.3506, and Tuesday's intraday range was recorded as 1.3491–1.3517, essentially unchanged for the day . Analysts noted that the lack of follow-through buying after a breakout above the $1.3500 level warranted caution before positioning for further appreciation .

US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firm ahead of CPI

The US dollar firmed for a second day on Tuesday. Markets were cautious ahead of Wednesday's crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which would shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy . The dollar benefited from safe-haven demand tied to ongoing Middle East tensions and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz standoff .

Strait of Hormuz / Diplomatic Context

Uncertainty over stalled US-Iran peace talks continued to support crude oil prices, with the Strait of Hormuz standoff remaining unresolved . A mediator proposal for a 10-day truce briefly knocked crude lower in early trade on Tuesday, but a reported fresh tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz sent WTI crude settling 2.5% higher near $84 per barrel .

Note: Specific details regarding diplomatic signals from Pakistan and Qatar were not directly confirmed in the sourced coverage available within this search. The available market reports cite "stalled US-Iran peace talks" and "uncertainty over US-Iran talks" as the primary drivers of oil price support .

Summary of key risk dates and data releases

• Wednesday, August 12 — US CPI data release, expected to set the tone for the dollar and broader FX markets .
• August 19, 2026 — Deadline for 50% US tariffs on many Canadian goods to take effect, flagged by Commerzbank and others as a key risk event for the loonie .