The core dynamic is that every headline from the talks pushes prices. Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued six demands on August 8 — including an end to military action, full sanctions relief, withdrawal of U.S. forces, and compensation for war damages — and stated the Strait "will not reopen until the US corrects its behavior" . Iran and Oman are reportedly close on a technical shipping-lane agreement, but Tehran insists that alone is insufficient . Trump then countered on August 10 with his own demand that Iran pay compensation for people killed in wars and protests , making a near-term deal highly unlikely. Each round of escalation reinforces the expectation that supply will remain constrained for months, embedding a sustained premium into aluminum, crude, and diesel prices.