Fidan described this scenario as Russia's "final option" and said it could be triggered if destruction reaches a critical level both at the front and within Russia itself . He said that during a recent visit to Moscow, the topic of potential nuclear escalation came up in conversations because "the public is now demanding such a thing," and described the situation as dangerous .

Fidan called on the international community to intervene to stop the war before it reaches that threshold . He noted that previous Western assumptions about what was unthinkable in this war have already been overturned, adding: "Everything that it was said could not happen is happening" .

The Diplomatic Proposal: A Black Sea Shipping Moratorium

To address the widening conflict in the Black Sea, Turkey proposed a moratorium on strikes against merchant vessels — a mutual halt to attacks on civilian and commercial shipping. Fidan confirmed that Ankara conveyed the proposal to both Moscow and Kyiv and was awaiting their responses .

The proposal specifically aims to protect ports, tankers, fishing boats, and civilian maritime traffic. Fidan explained that the conflict had spread across the entire Black Sea: while attacks initially targeted ports and warships, merchant vessels were now being targeted indiscriminately . Turkish-owned vessels, vessels with Turkish crew, and ships carrying Turkish cargo had come under attack, making this a direct concern for Ankara .

Fidan also called for a limited ceasefire on energy infrastructure, framing both proposals as pragmatic steps if a comprehensive peace agreement remained out of reach: "If sides will not pursue a comprehensive cease-fire and peace agreement, they should have a limited agreement on not attacking energy infrastructure and ensuring maritime security in Black Sea" .

Turkey's Mediation Role and the Istanbul Format

Turkey has positioned itself as a key mediator throughout the Russia-Ukraine war. It previously hosted direct negotiations between the two sides in Istanbul (the "Istanbul format") and has consistently offered to facilitate renewed talks . Fidan repeated Turkey's offer to host negotiations during visits to both Moscow and Kyiv in mid-2026 .

Speaking at a joint press conference with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha in Kyiv on July 16, 2026, Fidan stated: "I believe it would be very beneficial for Türkiye-mediated Istanbul talks on the Russia-Ukraine war to continue under the same framework" . He also expressed that Russia was ready for negotiations with Ukraine, though no concrete timeline was given .

Why the Black Sea Matters

The Black Sea is a strategically vital waterway for global grain shipments, energy supplies, and regional stability. The war has repeatedly disrupted commercial shipping, with both sides targeting port infrastructure, warships, and, increasingly, civilian vessels . Turkey, which controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits under the Montreux Convention, has a unique position to influence maritime security in the region.

Fidan's warning and proposal together represent Turkey's dual-track approach: publicly raising the alarm about nuclear escalation while simultaneously offering practical, limited agreements to reduce immediate risks in the Black Sea.

Fidan described this scenario as Russia's "final option" and said it could be triggered if destruction reaches a critical level both at the front and within Russia itself . He said that during a recent visit to Moscow, the topic of potential nuclear escalation came up in conversations because "the public is now demanding such a thing," and described the situation as dangerous .

Fidan called on the international community to intervene to stop the war before it reaches that threshold . He noted that previous Western assumptions about what was unthinkable in this war have already been overturned, adding: "Everything that it was said could not happen is happening" .

The Diplomatic Proposal: A Black Sea Shipping Moratorium

To address the widening conflict in the Black Sea, Turkey proposed a moratorium on strikes against merchant vessels — a mutual halt to attacks on civilian and commercial shipping. Fidan confirmed that Ankara conveyed the proposal to both Moscow and Kyiv and was awaiting their responses .

The proposal specifically aims to protect ports, tankers, fishing boats, and civilian maritime traffic. Fidan explained that the conflict had spread across the entire Black Sea: while attacks initially targeted ports and warships, merchant vessels were now being targeted indiscriminately . Turkish-owned vessels, vessels with Turkish crew, and ships carrying Turkish cargo had come under attack, making this a direct concern for Ankara .

Fidan also called for a limited ceasefire on energy infrastructure, framing both proposals as pragmatic steps if a comprehensive peace agreement remained out of reach: "If sides will not pursue a comprehensive cease-fire and peace agreement, they should have a limited agreement on not attacking energy infrastructure and ensuring maritime security in Black Sea" .

Turkey's Mediation Role and the Istanbul Format

Turkey has positioned itself as a key mediator throughout the Russia-Ukraine war. It previously hosted direct negotiations between the two sides in Istanbul (the "Istanbul format") and has consistently offered to facilitate renewed talks . Fidan repeated Turkey's offer to host negotiations during visits to both Moscow and Kyiv in mid-2026 .

Speaking at a joint press conference with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha in Kyiv on July 16, 2026, Fidan stated: "I believe it would be very beneficial for Türkiye-mediated Istanbul talks on the Russia-Ukraine war to continue under the same framework" . He also expressed that Russia was ready for negotiations with Ukraine, though no concrete timeline was given .

Why the Black Sea Matters

The Black Sea is a strategically vital waterway for global grain shipments, energy supplies, and regional stability. The war has repeatedly disrupted commercial shipping, with both sides targeting port infrastructure, warships, and, increasingly, civilian vessels . Turkey, which controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits under the Montreux Convention, has a unique position to influence maritime security in the region.

Fidan's warning and proposal together represent Turkey's dual-track approach: publicly raising the alarm about nuclear escalation while simultaneously offering practical, limited agreements to reduce immediate risks in the Black Sea.