Fidan described this scenario as Russia's "final option" and said it could be triggered if destruction reaches a critical level both at the front and within Russia itself . He said that during a recent visit to Moscow, the topic of potential nuclear escalation came up in conversations because "the public is now demanding such a thing," and described the situation as dangerous .
Fidan called on the international community to intervene to stop the war before it reaches that threshold . He noted that previous Western assumptions about what was unthinkable in this war have already been overturned, adding: "Everything that it was said could not happen is happening" .
To address the widening conflict in the Black Sea, Turkey proposed a moratorium on strikes against merchant vessels — a mutual halt to attacks on civilian and commercial shipping. Fidan confirmed that Ankara conveyed the proposal to both Moscow and Kyiv and was awaiting their responses .
The proposal specifically aims to protect ports, tankers, fishing boats, and civilian maritime traffic. Fidan explained that the conflict had spread across the entire Black Sea: while attacks initially targeted ports and warships, merchant vessels were now being targeted indiscriminately . Turkish-owned vessels, vessels with Turkish crew, and ships carrying Turkish cargo had come under attack, making this a direct concern for Ankara .
Fidan also called for a limited ceasefire on energy infrastructure, framing both proposals as pragmatic steps if a comprehensive peace agreement remained out of reach: "If sides will not pursue a comprehensive cease-fire and peace agreement, they should have a limited agreement on not attacking energy infrastructure and ensuring maritime security in Black Sea" .
Turkey has positioned itself as a key mediator throughout the Russia-Ukraine war. It previously hosted direct negotiations between the two sides in Istanbul (the "Istanbul format") and has consistently offered to facilitate renewed talks . Fidan repeated Turkey's offer to host negotiations during visits to both Moscow and Kyiv in mid-2026 .
Speaking at a joint press conference with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha in Kyiv on July 16, 2026, Fidan stated: "I believe it would be very beneficial for Türkiye-mediated Istanbul talks on the Russia-Ukraine war to continue under the same framework" . He also expressed that Russia was ready for negotiations with Ukraine, though no concrete timeline was given .
The Black Sea is a strategically vital waterway for global grain shipments, energy supplies, and regional stability. The war has repeatedly disrupted commercial shipping, with both sides targeting port infrastructure, warships, and, increasingly, civilian vessels . Turkey, which controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits under the Montreux Convention, has a unique position to influence maritime security in the region.
Fidan's warning and proposal together represent Turkey's dual-track approach: publicly raising the alarm about nuclear escalation while simultaneously offering practical, limited agreements to reduce immediate risks in the Black Sea.