The Strait of Hormuz Closure and the Global Jet Fuel Crisis: Inside the 2026 Airline Disruption

Before the conflict, Middle East refineries had been sending roughly 470,000 barrels of jet fuel per day through the Strait to airports in Europe and elsewhere — a flow that was effectively halted .

Jet fuel prices roughly double

By mid-April 2026, jet fuel prices had roughly doubled from pre-war levels . IATA projected an average jet fuel price of approximately $152 per barrel for 2026, compared to $90 in 2025 — a 121% year-over-year surge by April . In the U.S., jet fuel prices rose from about $2.50 per gallon on February 27 to $4.88 per gallon by April 2, according to S&P Global data cited by CNBC .

Countries heavily reliant on Persian Gulf jet fuel imports — including the United Kingdom, Australia, and Mexico — were hit hardest . Europe, which imports roughly a third of its jet fuel largely from the Middle East, faced a systemic crunch, with emergency imports from the U.S. falling short and airport rationing beginning by July .

Airline operations: mass cancellations and hub closures

The immediate impact on airline operations was severe. Major Middle Eastern airports — including Dubai (the world's busiest international hub), Abu Dhabi, and Doha — were shut or severely restricted immediately after the February 28 strikes, unleashing one of the sharpest aviation shocks in years S. According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, of 51,600 commercial flights scheduled to or from the Middle East in the days following the strikes, more than half were cancelled S.

European airlines slashed thousands of flights through the peak summer travel season . The Lufthansa Group alone cut 20,000 flights over six months to conserve jet fuel, saving an estimated 40,000 metric tons S. Many carriers suspended Middle East routes entirely; Greece's largest carrier cancelled flights to Dubai until August 31 and to Erbil and Baghdad until September 30 . Airspace restrictions forced longer flight paths between Europe, Asia, and Africa, increasing fuel burn and crew costs S.

Airlines raised fares, added fuel surcharges, and increased baggage fees to offset doubled fuel costs . By late June, acute fears of passengers being stranded during the summer travel season had been largely eliminated, but prices remained well above historical averages . IATA warned that even if the Strait fully reopened, supply recovery could take months due to damage to Middle East refining capacity .

Aircraft order plans: holding steady — for now

Despite the severe operational disruption, Gulf carriers have not yet moved to cancel or restructure their aircraft orders. As of early August 2026, Boeing confirmed that Gulf airlines had not sought to delay or restructure deliveries, citing intact long-term growth prospects S. Airbus similarly reported no cancellations or postponements as of late April 2026 S.

IATA's vice president advised Middle Eastern airlines against deferring jet orders, warning that postponing would be costly in the long run due to unpredictable market conditions and long waiting periods for new aircraft S. However, analysts warned that a prolonged disruption could eventually pressure order books, and some carriers did begin to slow new order activity in the early weeks of the crisis S.

Government and carrier response measures

Multilateral emergency action: The most significant coordinated response came on March 11, 2026, when the IEA announced the largest-ever release of emergency oil stocks — 400 million barrels — from its 32 member countries. The U.S. contributed 172 million barrels, and Japan pledged 80 million barrels S.

Several governments implemented demand-side measures to conserve petroleum: fuel rationing, reduced speed limits, work-from-home advisories, and a shift from gas-powered to coal-powered electricity production S. The IEA itself urged measures such as minimizing air travel and reducing driving speeds .

Airline-level responses: Carriers adopted an array of tactics:

• Aggressive schedule cuts and route suspensions, led by Lufthansa's 20,000-flight reduction S.
• Sourcing jet fuel from alternative, far-distant suppliers — for example, shipments from Baton Rouge, Louisiana to Melbourne, Australia, traveling unprecedented distances at significantly higher cost .
• Raising fares, baggage fees, and other ancillary charges .
• "Tankering" fuel — carrying extra fuel on longer flight legs to avoid refueling at shortage-hit airports.
• Restoring some Middle East flights cautiously as airspace partially reopened, but maintaining suspensions on high-risk routes S.

Ongoing risk and uncertain outlook

As of August 2026, the Strait remained partially blocked. Iran's parliament was reviewing legislation to permanently ban U.S.- and Israeli-linked ships from transiting the Strait and to impose tolls of up to 7% of cargo value on other commercial vessels . This means the crisis could persist well beyond any ceasefire, with long-term implications for global aviation fuel supply chains.

Industry officials and IATA stressed that even under best-case scenarios, fully restoring jet fuel supply to pre-crisis levels would take months due to damaged refining capacity across the Middle East . The IEA's Global Outlook for Air Transport concluded that the disruption had "fractured established supply chains" and that even net-exporting regions were affected by regional price dislocations .