What arguments has Brookings senior fellow Robin Brooks made against Bitcoin being a safe haven, what evidence does he cite, and how do gold's recent performance and relative strength against Bitcoin support his view?

Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, has repeatedly argued that Bitcoin fails as a safe haven and store of value. His core case is that Bitcoin has consistently underperformed precious metals during the "debasement trade" — the period when investors flee fiat currency depreciation into scarce, inflation-resistant assets — and that its price action validates the conclusion that it is not digital gold .

Brooks' main arguments against Bitcoin as a safe haven

• Bitcoin is not part of the debasement trade. Brooks states bluntly that Bitcoin "isn't part of the debasement trade" and has "consistently underperformed precious metals since the debasement trade got going" . A genuine safe haven should rally when currency debasement fears rise; Bitcoin has not done so .

• Price action disproves the narrative. Brooks argues that the claim Bitcoin is a safe haven is "a matter of perception, but it's validated by price action" — and the price action shows persistent underperformance against gold .

• Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset, not a hedge. He emphasizes that during market stress, Bitcoin tends to fall in lockstep with equities rather than holding or gaining value. Brooks has also argued that gold itself has lost some safe-haven characteristics, now trading as a "pro-cyclical, high-beta asset" that moves with the S&P 500 and Bitcoin .

• Speculative investment, not digital gold. In his Brookings article "The brutal truth about Bitcoin," Brooks notes that Bitcoin has "no intrinsic value and is not backed by anything" and has failed its stated monetary objectives, becoming purely a speculative investment .

Evidence Brooks cites

• Gold's sustained outperformance over Bitcoin during the multi-year debasement trade cycle.
• Gold's correlation with equities — Brooks has pointed out that gold's correlation with the S&P 500 surged to over 0.50 in recent months, and Bitcoin's equity correlation climbed to around 0.55 between late 2025 and early 2026 . This rising correlation with risk assets undermines the safe-haven label for both.
• The "debasement trade" test: If Bitcoin were digital gold, it should have rallied alongside precious metals when fiscal and monetary expansion drove debasement fears. Brooks observes that instead, Bitcoin materially underperformed.

How gold's recent performance and relative strength support his view

The raw numbers strongly back Brooks' thesis:

• Over the past year (Aug 2025 – Aug 2026): Gold rallied approximately 28%, from around $3,400 to roughly $4,330 per ounce. Over the same period, Bitcoin declined about 44%, falling from ~$117,000 to ~$65,000. That is a performance gap of over 70 percentage points in gold's favor .

• In 2025 alone: Gold surged 65%, delivering one of its best years on record. Bitcoin fell 7% that same year . The debasement trade was "decisively won by precious metals over bitcoin" .

• From Bitcoin's peak: Bitcoin hit an all-time high near $126,200 on October 6, 2025, but has since declined roughly 48%. Meanwhile, gold continued to hold substantially more of its value over the same stretch .

• The pattern validates Brooks' core claim: In the specific environment where a safe haven should shine — currency debasement fears, central bank gold buying, and inflation anxiety — gold delivered strong positive returns while Bitcoin suffered steep losses. Brooks uses this exact divergence as his primary evidence that the market treats gold and Bitcoin fundamentally differently, and that Bitcoin has not earned the safe-haven label .