Half of Russians No Longer View Ukraine War as Successful

Putin's approval rating has declined for seven consecutive months, reaching 65.6% in April 2026 according to state pollster VTsIOM — his lowest since before the war . By June, Levada recorded a further five-percentage-point drop to 74% . Ukrainian intelligence, citing its own data, estimates that United Russia's actual support hovers around 27%, trending toward 22% before election day .

The independent Levada Center also found in February 2026 that only 24% of Russians wanted military operations to continue — the lowest level recorded — while 67% said Russia should move to peace negotiations .

Key Domestic Drivers

Fuel Crisis

Ukraine's sustained drone campaign has knocked out roughly a third of Russia's refining capacity . At the peak, Russian gasoline output covered only about 65% of domestic demand . Almost all of Russia's 83 regions imposed rationing or reported supply disruptions . Russian-controlled Crimea declared a state of emergency in June 2026, where gas was rationed at 20 liters per vehicle per week through prepaid coupons that sold out within minutes . Putin himself publicly admitted the shortages on state television, acknowledging Ukrainian attacks were creating "certain problems" . By late July, the worst had eased in Moscow through Siberian fuel rerouting and Indian imports, but Crimea remained acutely affected .

Long-Range Strikes Bringing War Home

Ukraine's drone campaign has expanded both depth and frequency since mid-2025, hitting oil refineries, fuel depots, export terminals, and logistics hubs far inside Russia . In July 2026, Ukrainian drones struck Wildberries warehouses — Russia's largest online retailer — in a blow that hit small businesses and drove home the war's reach . A drone strike in the Moscow region killed five civilians in early August . These attacks have exposed the Kremlin's inability to defend Russian cities and the capital .

According to a survey by a Kremlin-linked public opinion agency in mid-May 2026, public anxiety in Russia about Ukrainian attacks is growing, with more respondents concerned about strikes at home than about developments at the front .

Economic Pressure and Mobilization Fears

The fuel crisis disrupted agricultural harvesting in Russia's grain belt , while rising prices and budget challenges have fueled economic anxiety . Rumors of a fresh mobilization wave in the fall, combined with recent high-casualty setbacks on the front, have further eroded public morale .

Political Challenges Ahead of September 2026 Duma Elections

United Russia's Expected Supermajority Is Fragile

The party is expected to retain a constitutional majority through administrative pressure, candidate filtering, and a crackdown that has removed genuine opposition options . However, the Kremlin has resorted to aggressive gerrymandering — pressuring the Communist Party to sideline its strongest candidates in single-member districts . Security officials have privately argued for postponing or canceling the elections altogether, worried that worsening economic conditions could produce an embarrassing result .

A Rare Pro-Peace Party Was Allowed to Run

Russia's Central Election Commission approved more than 400 candidates from the liberal Yabloko party to run on a pro-peace platform — an unusual concession that may serve as a controlled safety valve or signal the Kremlin's confidence it can contain dissent .

The Credibility Gap

Ukrainian intelligence claims United Russia's true support is just 22–27% . Even state-connected think tanks acknowledge the election outcome is "largely predetermined" by suppression rather than genuine popularity . The VTsIOM open trust rating — where respondents name politicians unprompted — was quietly closed this spring after showing an uncomfortable decline, with Putin's open trust rating falling to 29.5% in March 2026, the lowest since the start of the full-scale war . The gap between the open trust rating and the closed-question approval rating suggests unease even within Kremlin-controlled polling . The Kremlin has also lowered its targets for turnout and United Russia's vote share, according to Russian media reports .

Bottom Line

Russian public confidence in the Ukraine war has hit its lowest recorded point, driven by a nationwide fuel crisis caused by Ukrainian drone strikes, rising economic strain, and growing fears of mobilization. Putin's approval is sliding, and while United Russia is still expected to engineer a formal victory in September's Duma elections, the Kremlin is resorting to gerrymandering, candidate suppression, and debates about cancellation to manage what would otherwise be a poor showing. The war — once a distant event for many Russians — has become a visible, material burden for ordinary citizens for the first time.