How 'Heatflation' Is Driving Up Food Prices in South Korea and Europe Right Now

South Korea: Vegetables Up 100–218% and Mass Fish Kills

South Korea is currently in the grip of a record heatwave, with apparent temperatures approaching 40°C . The impact on grocery shelves is immediate and severe:

• Cucumbers that cost under 300 won (about $0.22) each in late June now sell for 900 won — a threefold increase in just six weeks .
• Eggplant prices rose 218% month-on-month, while zucchini climbed 112% .
• Spinach, young radish, cabbage, and carrot prices have all surged sharply as the unrelenting heat stunted growth .
• Seawater temperatures have also risen sharply, triggering mass flatfish deaths at aquaculture farms and threatening supplies of fresh fish for sashimi . Hundreds of thousands of farm animals and livestock have also perished from heat stress .

The phenomenon has become so widespread that the term "heatflation" now appears routinely in Korean media and government statements .

Europe: €2 Billion in Crop Losses and Persistent Food Inflation

Europe experienced its own severe heatwave in June 2026. According to Coceral, the European association representing trade of cereals and oilseeds, the heatwave destroyed an estimated 10 million tonnes of grain crops — including wheat, barley, maize, and oats — costing farmers roughly €2 billion in lost revenue . The harvest across the 27 EU member states and the UK is now predicted to be 9 million tonnes smaller than forecast before the heatwave, the smallest harvest since 2018 .

The European Central Bank (ECB) has quantified the impact of extreme heat on food prices in a series of working papers. ECB research found that the extreme summer heat of 2022 alone increased food inflation in Europe by 0.67 percentage points, and projects that future warming by 2035 would amplify the impact of such extremes by 50% . Euro area food inflation averaged 2.9% in 2025, remaining above its pre-pandemic long-term average of 2.2% .

Oxford Economics, in analysis reported by Forbes and Euronews, concluded that this summer's heatwaves in Europe will be "a stronger upward driver of food prices next year than the war," referring to the Iran conflict . In the base case, Oxford Economics sees eurozone food inflation rising from June 2026's 1.5% to around 3% in 2027 .

The Super El Niño Warning: Economists Flag a Multi-Year Food Price Shock

Compounding the current heatflation crisis is the arrival of a powerful El Niño. The current El Niño emerged in May/June 2026 and is being called a "Super El Niño" by some scientists, with the US Climate Prediction Center putting the probability of a very strong or super El Niño by year-end at 81% . It is expected to peak over the Northern Hemisphere winter and could persist well into 2027 .

Major financial institutions and UN agencies have issued stark warnings:

• JPMorgan warns that the combination of El Niño and higher oil prices could add 0.3 percentage points to global inflation in 2027, with emerging markets hit hardest .
• Allianz notes that the IMF estimates a typical El Niño raises global food commodity prices by around 5% within a year .
• The ECB previously estimated that a strong El Niño could drive up food commodity prices by as much as 9%, with soybeans among the hardest hit .
• The World Food Programme projects that this El Niño could push nearly an additional 49 million people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, with Central America and Southern Africa expected to be hardest hit — the number of people facing food insecurity is projected to increase by 83% in Central America and nearly 75% in Southern Africa .
• The FAO warned on August 5, 2026, that the world is on the verge of another bout of food inflation as wars in Iran and Ukraine combine with El Niño to create a "perfect storm" of higher costs .
• The World Bank projects a 2.5% increase in its global food commodity price index for 2026 and notes that risks are firmly tilted to the upside, with El Niño, rising energy and fertilizer costs, and potential trade restrictions all capable of pushing prices significantly higher .
• Schroders' head of global economics, David Rees, warns that a very strong El Niño could imply a doubling of global food inflation rates .
• Economists writing in The Guardian warn that the current "super" El Niño could cause a severe shock to global food prices lasting into 2028, especially as it coincides with the Iran war and the Ukraine conflict .

The Cumulative Picture: Why This Time Is Different

What makes the current period particularly dangerous is the stacking of multiple shocks. The El Niño is arriving on top of conflict-driven energy and fertilizer price spikes from the Iran war and the war in Ukraine. As UN FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero put it, the combination of war and El Niño creates "a perfect storm" . The Bloomberg analysis notes that emerging markets in Latin America, Africa, and Asia will face compounding pressures from higher oil import costs, strained supply chains, and erratic weather from El Niño .

World Bank analysis further warns that El Niño conditions, rising energy and fertilizer costs, growing biofuel demand, and potential trade restrictions could all push food prices significantly above current projections . A Schroders report notes that over 50% of the United States was hit by drought by end of May 2026, with about 250 million acres of crops affected, adding further upward pressure on global food prices .

The World Bank also projects that rice output could fall by 20 to 50% in affected regions if the El Niño persists, with South Asia, Southern Africa, and parts of East Asia most exposed .

Bottom Line

Heatflation is not a theoretical concept — it is visibly lifting prices at supermarket shelves in South Korea and across Europe right now. The arrival of a powerful Super El Niño on top of existing conflict-driven energy and fertilizer shocks has led major financial institutions and UN agencies to warn that global food inflation could accelerate significantly through late 2026 and into 2028. The combination of heatwaves, war, and a super El Niño creates a risk of a sustained, multi-year food price crisis that will most severely affect the world's most vulnerable populations.