The 2026 Super El Niño Is Here: What It Means for Food, Commodities, and Haze in Southeast Asia

Global Commodity Markets Brace for a 'Super El Niño' Price Shock

Economists warn that a "Super El Niño" could cause a global food price shock lasting into 2028 . Allianz Trade describes the 2026–27 El Niño as potentially the strongest climate event in more than a decade, with direct implications for inflation, trade flows, supply chains, and corporate earnings .

The event is understood not as a mere operational risk but as a macroeconomic event. Emerging markets across Asia, Africa, and Latin America face the heaviest strain, with fragile economies already squeezed by war and debt . Allianz Trade notes that the greatest disruption will be concentrated in commodities produced in Asia, while grains in Latin America — mainly Brazil and Argentina — could see oversupply from improved growing conditions .

Drought Conditions Worsen Across Southern ASEAN

The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) issued a seasonal outlook on 4 August warning of drier- and warmer-than-normal conditions across southern Southeast Asia from August through October 2026 . Large swaths of Indonesia have a high probability of below-normal rainfall, exacerbating drought and wildfire risks .

US forecasters say the El Niño is on track to become the most powerful in at least 75–76 years , while some sources say it could be the strongest in 140 years .

Transboundary Haze Risk at Highest Warning Level

The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) issued its highest-level "red" warning for severe transboundary haze, flagging August–September as the "peak danger" period . Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore face the highest risk of severe haze episodes as El Niño-driven heat and aridity combine with increased biofuel demand and budget cuts for fire prevention in Indonesia .

The ASMC notes that El Niño conditions tend to lead to an escalation of fires and transboundary haze across the region .

The Bottom Line

The 2026 El Niño is expected to be one of the strongest on record, driving severe drought in Southeast Asia's rice belt, threatening a 20–50% drop in rice output, triggering a multi-year global food price shock, and creating a high risk of a severe transboundary haze crisis that is expected to peak in August–September 2026.