The 2026 Super El Niño Is Here: What It Means for Food, Commodities, and Haze in Southeast Asia

Unfavorable weather patterns are already hindering agricultural planting throughout Asia, raising alarms about food security in the world's most populous region . India's monsoon forecast is grim, adding pressure on rice and sugar exports and raising concerns about potential export restrictions .

Global Commodity Markets Brace for a 'Super El Niño' Price Shock

Economists warn that a "Super El Niño" could cause a global food price shock lasting into 2028 . Allianz Trade describes the 2026–27 El Niño as potentially the strongest climate event in more than a decade, with direct implications for inflation, trade flows, supply chains, and corporate earnings .

The event is understood not as a mere operational risk but as a macroeconomic event. Emerging markets across Asia, Africa, and Latin America face the heaviest strain, with fragile economies already squeezed by war and debt . Allianz Trade notes that the greatest disruption will be concentrated in commodities produced in Asia, while grains in Latin America — mainly Brazil and Argentina — could see oversupply from improved growing conditions .

Drought Conditions Worsen Across Southern ASEAN

The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) issued a seasonal outlook on 4 August warning of drier- and warmer-than-normal conditions across southern Southeast Asia from August through October 2026 . Large swaths of Indonesia have a high probability of below-normal rainfall, exacerbating drought and wildfire risks .

US forecasters say the El Niño is on track to become the most powerful in at least 75–76 years , while some sources say it could be the strongest in 140 years .

Transboundary Haze Risk at Highest Warning Level

The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) issued its highest-level "red" warning for severe transboundary haze, flagging August–September as the "peak danger" period . Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore face the highest risk of severe haze episodes as El Niño-driven heat and aridity combine with increased biofuel demand and budget cuts for fire prevention in Indonesia .

The ASMC notes that El Niño conditions tend to lead to an escalation of fires and transboundary haze across the region .

The Bottom Line

The 2026 El Niño is expected to be one of the strongest on record, driving severe drought in Southeast Asia's rice belt, threatening a 20–50% drop in rice output, triggering a multi-year global food price shock, and creating a high risk of a severe transboundary haze crisis that is expected to peak in August–September 2026.