Goldman Sachs Oil Price Outlook: Brent at $80 or Above $120 by Q4 2026?
Goldman Sachs' base case sees Brent crude at $80/barrel in Q4 2026 and $75 in 2027, assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The Strait of Hormuz closure is the dominant factor, which Goldman called the 'largest ever supply shock' in oil market history.
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Goldman Sachs' base case sees Brent crude at $80/barrel in Q4 2026 and $75 in 2027, assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
The Strait of Hormuz closure is the dominant factor, which Goldman called the 'largest ever supply shock' in oil market history.
What is Goldman Sachs' outlook for Brent crude prices amid the U.S.-Iran war, and how do physical market tightening, disruptions at three keGoldman Sachs projects Brent crude at $80 in Q4 2026 under its base case, but warns prices could exceed $120 if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist.
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Create a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: What is Goldman Sachs' outlook for Brent crude prices amid the U.S.-Iran war, and how do physical market tightening, disruptions at three ke. Article summary: Here is Goldman Sachs' outlook based on the latest research notes, with the key distinction between its base case and the worst-case scenario.. Topic tags: general, news, general web, user generated. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts with fake numbers, clickbait thumbnails, icons, and tiny thumbnail layouts. Mak
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Goldman Sachs has published a series of research notes that carve out a clear distinction between its base case and a worst-case risk scenario for Brent crude prices amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. Here is what the bank's analysis shows — and how three key maritime chokepoints are driving the volatility.
Goldman Sachs' Base Case: $80 Brent in Q4 2026, $75 in 2027
The current base case assumes the U.S.-Iran interim agreement holds and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, allowing Gulf exports to return to near pre-conflict levels . That outlook gives:
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What is the short answer to "Goldman Sachs Oil Price Outlook: Brent at $80 or Above $120 by Q4 2026?"?
Goldman Sachs' base case sees Brent crude at $80/barrel in Q4 2026 and $75 in 2027, assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
What are the key points to validate first?
Goldman Sachs' base case sees Brent crude at $80/barrel in Q4 2026 and $75 in 2027, assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The Strait of Hormuz closure is the dominant factor, which Goldman called the 'largest ever supply shock' in oil market history.
Goldman Sachs Oil Price Outlook: Brent at $80 or Above $120 by Q4 2026?
Goldman Sachs' base case sees Brent crude at $80/barrel in Q4 2026 and $75 in 2027, assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The Strait of Hormuz closure is the dominant factor, which Goldman called the 'largest ever supply shock' in oil market history.
Published byEdited with DeepSeek-V4-FlashImages generated with GPT Image 1.5
Goldman Sachs' base case sees Brent crude at $80/barrel in Q4 2026 and $75 in 2027, assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
The Strait of Hormuz closure is the dominant factor, which Goldman called the 'largest ever supply shock' in oil market history.
What is Goldman Sachs' outlook for Brent crude prices amid the U.S.-Iran war, and how do physical market tightening, disruptions at three keGoldman Sachs projects Brent crude at $80 in Q4 2026 under its base case, but warns prices could exceed $120 if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist.
AI Prompt
Create a landscape editorial hero image for this Studio Global article: What is Goldman Sachs' outlook for Brent crude prices amid the U.S.-Iran war, and how do physical market tightening, disruptions at three ke. Article summary: Here is Goldman Sachs' outlook based on the latest research notes, with the key distinction between its base case and the worst-case scenario.. Topic tags: general, news, general web, user generated. Style: premium digital editorial illustration, source-backed research mood, clean composition, high detail, modern web publication hero. Use reference image context only for broad subject, composition, and topical grounding; do not copy the exact image. Avoid: logos, brand marks, copyrighted characters, real person likenesses, fake screenshots, UI text, readable text, watermarks, charts with fake numbers, clickbait thumbnails, icons, and tiny thumbnail layouts. Mak
openai.com
Goldman Sachs has published a series of research notes that carve out a clear distinction between its base case and a worst-case risk scenario for Brent crude prices amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. Here is what the bank's analysis shows — and how three key maritime chokepoints are driving the volatility.
Goldman Sachs' Base Case: $80 Brent in Q4 2026, $75 in 2027
The current base case assumes the U.S.-Iran interim agreement holds and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, allowing Gulf exports to return to near pre-conflict levels . That outlook gives:
Studio Global AI
Continue your research
This page includes a source-backed answer you can continue inside Studio Global.
What is the short answer to "Goldman Sachs Oil Price Outlook: Brent at $80 or Above $120 by Q4 2026?"?
Goldman Sachs' base case sees Brent crude at $80/barrel in Q4 2026 and $75 in 2027, assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
What are the key points to validate first?
Goldman Sachs' base case sees Brent crude at $80/barrel in Q4 2026 and $75 in 2027, assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The Strait of Hormuz closure is the dominant factor, which Goldman called the 'largest ever supply shock' in oil market history.
After the preliminary deal was announced in June 2026, Goldman cut its Q4 forecast from $90 to $80 and its 2027 average from $80 to $75, arguing the market had largely priced a recovery .
The Worst-Case Scenario: $120+ by Q4 2026
If Hormuz disruptions persist rather than resolve, Goldman warns Brent could climb above $120 a barrel by Q4 2026. In an extended closure scenario, the bank has flagged Brent could surpass its all-time high from 2008, reaching above $130 .
This is explicitly labeled a risk scenario, not the central forecast. The conditions required: continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, no diplomatic resolution, and ongoing destruction of physical market balances. In a note from July 2026, Goldman said Brent could average roughly $100 through 2027 if Hormuz remains disrupted .
What Drove the Swings — The Three Chokepoints
Goldman's analysis identifies three maritime chokepoints that have contributed to market tightening and price volatility.
Chokepoint
Role in Goldman's Analysis
Strait of Hormuz
Dominant factor — Goldman called this the "largest-ever supply shock" in oil market history . A full closure removes roughly 17 million barrels per day of Gulf crude and products.
Red Sea (Bab el-Mandeb)
Houthi attacks on shipping have added a persistent risk premium and disrupted tanker routing, noted in recent Goldman reports . Flows through the Bab el-Mandeb averaged nearly 9 million bpd in recent months, making Red Sea disruptions significant for global supply .
Black Sea
Reduced Russian exports from war-related sanctions and insurance constraints compound the physical tightness in the Atlantic Basin, though less emphasized than Hormuz. Escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict has also reduced Kazakhstan's exports .
Physical Market Tightening and Reduced Exports
Beyond the chokepoints, several factors have tightened physical market conditions:
Hormuz closure directly choked off the vast majority of Gulf (Saudi, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran) crude exports, creating what Goldman called a supply shock without modern precedent .
Russian export constraints from the ongoing war and sanctions further tightened the Atlantic Basin market, adding to the bid on non-sanctioned grades.
Strategic stockpiling by refiners and governments during the conflict added incremental demand that tightened physical balances further .
Low global inventories meant the market had almost no buffer, amplifying price swings. U.S. crude inventories dropped by 7.2 million barrels to 426.5 million, nearly 5% below the five-year average, while distillates sat 13% below normal .
How the Price Path Evolved Through 2026
The bank's forecasts shifted repeatedly as the conflict unfolded:
March 2026 (early war): Goldman raised its full-year 2026 Brent forecast from $77 to $85 and warned Brent could exceed its all-time high if Hormuz stayed blocked .
April–May 2026 (war continues): As the stalemate dragged on, Goldman lifted Q4 Brent to $90, with risks of sustained $100+ .
June 2026 (Hormuz deal announced): Goldman cut Q4 Brent to $80 and 2027 to $75, arguing the market had largely priced a recovery .
July 2026 (deal implementation stalls): Goldman reaffirmed the $80 Q4 base case but flagged that renewed disruption risk could push Brent to $120+ .
The $70 Question: Downside Risk, Not the Main Forecast
Goldman's base case for Q4 2026 is $80, not $70. The bank's published 2027 average is $75 . However, Goldman has noted that a faster supply normalization or softer demand could push Brent to around $70 in late 2026 and $60 in 2027 — a downside risk scenario, not the main forecast . The original early-war base case (March 2026) had Brent easing to the $70s by Q4 2026 on a gradual Hormuz recovery, but that expectation was revised upward as the war persisted .
Key Takeaways for Investors
Base case vs. risk scenario: The $80 Brent forecast is the central expectation; the $120+ call is a contingency, not a prediction.
Strait of Hormuz is the dominant variable: Its status — open, partially disrupted, or closed — determines the entire price range.
Three chokepoints matter: Hormuz gets the headlines, but the Red Sea and Black Sea disruptions compound the tightening effect.
Low inventories amplify swings: With limited buffer, even small supply changes can produce outsized price moves.
Downside risk exists too: A faster resolution or softer demand could bring Brent to $70 in late 2026, though this is not the central forecast.
thestreet.comGoldman Sachs doubles down on oil price forecast for 2026
After the preliminary deal was announced in June 2026, Goldman cut its Q4 forecast from $90 to $80 and its 2027 average from $80 to $75, arguing the market had largely priced a recovery .
The Worst-Case Scenario: $120+ by Q4 2026
If Hormuz disruptions persist rather than resolve, Goldman warns Brent could climb above $120 a barrel by Q4 2026. In an extended closure scenario, the bank has flagged Brent could surpass its all-time high from 2008, reaching above $130 .
This is explicitly labeled a risk scenario, not the central forecast. The conditions required: continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, no diplomatic resolution, and ongoing destruction of physical market balances. In a note from July 2026, Goldman said Brent could average roughly $100 through 2027 if Hormuz remains disrupted .
What Drove the Swings — The Three Chokepoints
Goldman's analysis identifies three maritime chokepoints that have contributed to market tightening and price volatility.
Chokepoint
Role in Goldman's Analysis
Strait of Hormuz
Dominant factor — Goldman called this the "largest-ever supply shock" in oil market history . A full closure removes roughly 17 million barrels per day of Gulf crude and products.
Red Sea (Bab el-Mandeb)
Houthi attacks on shipping have added a persistent risk premium and disrupted tanker routing, noted in recent Goldman reports . Flows through the Bab el-Mandeb averaged nearly 9 million bpd in recent months, making Red Sea disruptions significant for global supply .
Black Sea
Reduced Russian exports from war-related sanctions and insurance constraints compound the physical tightness in the Atlantic Basin, though less emphasized than Hormuz. Escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict has also reduced Kazakhstan's exports .
Physical Market Tightening and Reduced Exports
Beyond the chokepoints, several factors have tightened physical market conditions:
Hormuz closure directly choked off the vast majority of Gulf (Saudi, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran) crude exports, creating what Goldman called a supply shock without modern precedent .
Russian export constraints from the ongoing war and sanctions further tightened the Atlantic Basin market, adding to the bid on non-sanctioned grades.
Strategic stockpiling by refiners and governments during the conflict added incremental demand that tightened physical balances further .
Low global inventories meant the market had almost no buffer, amplifying price swings. U.S. crude inventories dropped by 7.2 million barrels to 426.5 million, nearly 5% below the five-year average, while distillates sat 13% below normal .
How the Price Path Evolved Through 2026
The bank's forecasts shifted repeatedly as the conflict unfolded:
March 2026 (early war): Goldman raised its full-year 2026 Brent forecast from $77 to $85 and warned Brent could exceed its all-time high if Hormuz stayed blocked .
April–May 2026 (war continues): As the stalemate dragged on, Goldman lifted Q4 Brent to $90, with risks of sustained $100+ .
June 2026 (Hormuz deal announced): Goldman cut Q4 Brent to $80 and 2027 to $75, arguing the market had largely priced a recovery .
July 2026 (deal implementation stalls): Goldman reaffirmed the $80 Q4 base case but flagged that renewed disruption risk could push Brent to $120+ .
The $70 Question: Downside Risk, Not the Main Forecast
Goldman's base case for Q4 2026 is $80, not $70. The bank's published 2027 average is $75 . However, Goldman has noted that a faster supply normalization or softer demand could push Brent to around $70 in late 2026 and $60 in 2027 — a downside risk scenario, not the main forecast . The original early-war base case (March 2026) had Brent easing to the $70s by Q4 2026 on a gradual Hormuz recovery, but that expectation was revised upward as the war persisted .
Key Takeaways for Investors
Base case vs. risk scenario: The $80 Brent forecast is the central expectation; the $120+ call is a contingency, not a prediction.
Strait of Hormuz is the dominant variable: Its status — open, partially disrupted, or closed — determines the entire price range.
Three chokepoints matter: Hormuz gets the headlines, but the Red Sea and Black Sea disruptions compound the tightening effect.
Low inventories amplify swings: With limited buffer, even small supply changes can produce outsized price moves.
Downside risk exists too: A faster resolution or softer demand could bring Brent to $70 in late 2026, though this is not the central forecast.
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