War, Oil, and Windfall Profits: Inside Glencore and BP’s Record-Breaking First Half of 2026

The Iran war that began in late February 2026 sent oil and gas prices soaring and created extreme volatility in global energy markets. Both Glencore and BP reported massive profit surges in the first half of 2026, driven primarily by their oil trading divisions capitalizing on price spikes, route disruptions, and supply uncertainty.

Glencore: A Trading Machine at Full Throttle

The Numbers

Glencore reported an adjusted EBITDA of $10.1 billion for H1 2026, with industrial EBITDA rising 72% year-on-year to $6.5 billion . Its marketing (trading) division posted an adjusted EBIT of approximately $3.3 billion, nearly double the $1.4 billion earned in H1 2025 . The energy-trading segment alone booked $2.66 billion in adjusted EBIT—a 66-fold increase from the $40 million it earned a year earlier .

What Drove the Surge

• The Iran war sent energy prices surging and disrupted global freight and commodity flows, creating ideal conditions for Glencore's marketing/trading unit .
• Higher average prices for core commodities (copper, coal, oil) and a "favourable marketing backdrop" also boosted results, according to the company's half-year report .
• Glencore's trading desk captured wide bid-ask spreads in volatile markets as prices swung sharply on news of the conflict .

Outlook

• Management described the H1 marketing performance as "near-record" and said full-year trading earnings would "comfortably" exceed their long-term guidance range of $2.2–$3.2 billion .
• The company is already within touching distance of one of its best-ever annual trading profits based on H1 alone .

BP: Quarterly Profits Not Seen Since 2022

The Numbers

BP reported extraordinary profit growth across both quarters of H1 2026:

Quarter	Metric	Figure	YoY Change
Q1 2026	Underlying replacement cost profit (adjusted net income)	$3.2 billion	More than doubled from $1.38 billion
Q1 2026	Profit attributable to shareholders	$3.84 billion	~5× increase from $687 million
Q2 2026	Underlying replacement cost profit	$5.73 billion	More than doubled from $2.35 billion
Q2 2026	Net profit	$3.91 billion	More than doubled from $1.62 billion

Q2 2026 was BP's highest quarterly profit since 2022, the period of the Russia-Ukraine war . Both quarters beat analyst expectations—Q1 by about 20% , Q2 by roughly $0.7 billion ($5.73B actual vs. $5.01B consensus) .

What Drove the Surge

• BP's oil trading desk posted "exceptional" performance as the Iran war drove oil and gas prices sharply higher .
• Refining margins also boomed due to constrained supply and disrupted trade routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz .
• BP benefited from the same market dynamics as Glencore: price volatility, supply fears, and physical trading opportunities created by the conflict.

Outlook

• BP's production and gas segments underperformed expectations, and fuel margins remain vulnerable to the trajectory of the conflict .
• Analysts noted that sustained high prices depend on how the war evolves; a ceasefire or escalation could reverse or extend the profit windfall .
• BP did not provide explicit full-year guidance, but the strong H1 sets a high base for 2026 annual earnings.

Key Difference Between the Two

Glencore's surge came through its commodity trading/marketing business (physically moving and positioning energy and metals), while BP's surge was driven by a combination of oil trading, refining, and its upstream oil & gas production as prices rose. Glencore's marketing EBIT roughly doubled; BP's quarterly adjusted profit more than doubled in both Q1 and Q2. Glencore's results were also boosted by higher copper prices and its metals business, which generated $4.5 billion of industrial EBITDA .