War, Oil, and Windfall Profits: Inside Glencore and BP’s Record-Breaking First Half of 2026

What Drove the Surge

• The Iran war sent energy prices surging and disrupted global freight and commodity flows, creating ideal conditions for Glencore's marketing/trading unit .
• Higher average prices for core commodities (copper, coal, oil) and a "favourable marketing backdrop" also boosted results, according to the company's half-year report .
• Glencore's trading desk captured wide bid-ask spreads in volatile markets as prices swung sharply on news of the conflict .

Outlook

• Management described the H1 marketing performance as "near-record" and said full-year trading earnings would "comfortably" exceed their long-term guidance range of $2.2–$3.2 billion .
• The company is already within touching distance of one of its best-ever annual trading profits based on H1 alone .

BP: Quarterly Profits Not Seen Since 2022

The Numbers

BP reported extraordinary profit growth across both quarters of H1 2026:

Q2 2026 was BP's highest quarterly profit since 2022, the period of the Russia-Ukraine war . Both quarters beat analyst expectations—Q1 by about 20% , Q2 by roughly $0.7 billion ($5.73B actual vs. $5.01B consensus) .

What Drove the Surge

• BP's oil trading desk posted "exceptional" performance as the Iran war drove oil and gas prices sharply higher .
• Refining margins also boomed due to constrained supply and disrupted trade routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz .
• BP benefited from the same market dynamics as Glencore: price volatility, supply fears, and physical trading opportunities created by the conflict.

Outlook

• BP's production and gas segments underperformed expectations, and fuel margins remain vulnerable to the trajectory of the conflict .
• Analysts noted that sustained high prices depend on how the war evolves; a ceasefire or escalation could reverse or extend the profit windfall .
• BP did not provide explicit full-year guidance, but the strong H1 sets a high base for 2026 annual earnings.

Key Difference Between the Two

Glencore's surge came through its commodity trading/marketing business (physically moving and positioning energy and metals), while BP's surge was driven by a combination of oil trading, refining, and its upstream oil & gas production as prices rose. Glencore's marketing EBIT roughly doubled; BP's quarterly adjusted profit more than doubled in both Q1 and Q2. Glencore's results were also boosted by higher copper prices and its metals business, which generated $4.5 billion of industrial EBITDA .