Belgium's Sole Reliance on Russian LNG in July 2026

This extreme case is not an isolated anomaly. It reflects a broader, deeply uncomfortable pattern for European energy policy.

Record Russian LNG Imports Despite a Looming Ban

EU countries imported record-high volumes of Russian LNG from the Yamal facility in the first half of 2026, even after formally adopting the REPowerEU phase-out regulation in January . Russian LNG imports rose roughly 17% in January–May 2026 compared to the same period in 2025 .

Russia became Europe's second-largest LNG supplier, accounting for 13% of imports in Q1 2026. EU imports of Russian LNG hit a quarterly record in the first three months of the year and were up 16% year-on-year . France, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal all continued importing Russian LNG in Q1 2026 .

Most European buyers have been holding off on winter stockpiling purchases due to persistently high gas prices caused by the Middle East supply disruptions .

EU Energy Policy Conflict: Legislation vs. Market Reality

In January 2026, EU member states formally adopted Regulation (EU) 2026/261, which bans Russian LNG imports by late 2026 and Russian pipeline gas imports by 2027 . The regulation marked a historic step in severing energy ties with Russia, which had supplied 45% of EU gas imports in 2021, reduced to 12% by 2025 .

Yet actual imports have risen sharply in the months since the law was passed. The ban on LNG only takes full effect on January 1, 2027 . Until then, member states are still legally allowed to import Russian gas, and the Middle East crisis has made it one of the few available sources at scale. The short-term ban on Russian LNG under short-term contracts took effect in April 2026, but long-term contracts can continue until the 2027 deadline .

This creates a strategic contradiction: the EU has legislated the end of Russian gas, but geopolitical shocks have made the remaining volumes painfully difficult to replace quickly.

Looming Winter Gas Crunch

Europe is heading into winter 2026-2027 with alarmingly fragile energy buffers. Underground gas storage facilities across the continent are currently around 50% full, their lowest level for this time of year since 2021, as buyers delay purchases due to high prices .

Europe faces simultaneous pressure from two major supply shocks: the Iran conflict, which blocked Qatari LNG transiting the Strait of Hormuz and damaged Qatari production facilities, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war . LNG imports into Europe slowed sharply — on track to total just 6.3 million metric tons in July 2026, the lowest since September 2021 .

Stubbornly high gas prices mean many European buyers are holding off from filling storage for winter, raising the risk of shortages during peak demand .

The Bigger Picture

Belgium's total dependence on Russian LNG in July 2026 is the sharpest example of a wider pattern: Europe is importing record volumes of Russian gas even as it has passed a law to ban it, because Middle East turmoil has removed alternative supplies just as winter storage levels sit dangerously low.

This is not just a Belgian problem. The wider European energy system is caught between policy deadlines and hard market constraints — a tension that winter will test severely.