Aston Martin 2026: Newey Confident Alonso Stays, Coulthard Predicts Race Wins Within Two Years

Earlier in the season, Newey had acknowledged that the success of the major Hungarian GP upgrade could be a critical factor in Alonso's decision to stay . However, after the upgrade was run in Budapest, Newey's tone shifted to one of confidence, telling reporters that Alonso's enjoyment of the team and the project gave him faith the relationship would continue .

Alonso's own words: Contract, future, and what really matters

Alonso's current contract runs through the end of 2026, and he has said he will decide on 2027 over the summer break . His public statements paint a clear picture of his priorities:

• He will not leave for another team. Alonso told reporters in Hungary that he has "zero doubts" about staying at Aston Martin. The main question is whether he enjoys driving the current-generation F1 cars enough to keep racing .
• Performance is not the deciding factor. Alonso has insisted that his future hinges on whether he enjoys driving the new hybrid cars, not on Aston Martin's results in the remainder of 2026 . He explained that his motivation comes from the challenge of the regulations, not from race-by-race standings .
• He played down Newey's upgrade theory. Alonso directly rejected the idea that the Hungarian GP upgrade would dictate his future, saying the decision is about the rules and regulations, not chassis performance .
• Long-term belief. Alonso previously called it his "mission" to see Aston Martin competitive and has said he is certain the team will be champions within 10 years .

In short, Alonso is committed to the team. The open question is whether a 45-year-old driver with nothing left to prove wants to continue wrestling a car that has been, by his own admission, uncompetitive and physically punishing .

The 2026 season: A disastrous start with the Honda partnership

By every objective measure, Aston Martin's 2026 season has been disastrous . Official statistics from the first nine rounds paint a grim picture :

• Constructors' standing: 10th (last)
• Points: 1 (Alonso's P10 in Monaco)
• Wins / podiums / poles: 0
• Top-10 finishes: 1 (in 9 races)
• DNFs: 9

The team's switch to a works Honda power unit deal from customer Mercedes powertrains backfired severely. The new Honda RA626H power unit generated severe vibrations that repeatedly damaged the batteries and caused reliability failures, while also causing extreme physical discomfort for both Alonso and Lance Stroll, sometimes limiting their mileage inside the cockpit . Honda rushed countermeasures for the Miami Grand Prix, but even after modifications, "the performance gap continued to increase" and newcomer Cadillac overtook Aston Martin in the standings . At the Belgian Grand Prix, even the slowest Cadillac in qualifying was over two seconds quicker than the fastest Aston .

Pre-season testing was the worst of any team, with Aston Martin completing the fewest laps — a total of 334 laps across six days of testing, compared to McLaren's 821 laps . Newey himself admitted the AMR26 package "came together at the last minute" after production delays .

Hungarian Grand Prix upgrade: A turning point or a false dawn?

The Hungarian Grand Prix brought a major chassis upgrade (AMR26B) that the team hoped would put them "back in the game" . Newey described the upgrade as potentially "critical" for Alonso's future . The upgrade focused on an aerodynamic revamp and significant weight savings .

Early reports from the Budapest weekend indicated the upgrade performed as hoped, with Newey noting he saw "the end of a nightmare" . David Coulthard, having seen the car, was encouraged by the direction and used it as a basis for his bullish prediction .

However, the upgrade did not deliver a breakthrough in results. Aston Martin remained at the back of the field, consistent with their 10th-place standing . The car was reportedly still about two seconds off the pace, with additional time lost from the power unit . The upgrade appeared to be a step in the right direction, but a very small one relative to the chasm between Aston Martin and the midfield.

David Coulthard's bold prediction: Race wins within two years

Former F1 driver and 13-time grand prix winner David Coulthard has made a boldly optimistic prediction that Aston Martin will become a race-winning team within the next two years . Speaking on the Up to Speed podcast:

• Coulthard called Aston Martin the "biggest improving" team over the next two years and said they will stand on the top step of the podium during that time .
• He believes the 2026 performance does not reflect the team's true potential and that once the car and engine problems are solved, they will win races .
• He cited the Hungarian GP upgrade as evidence that Adrian Newey's influence is already being felt and that the pieces are in place for a major turnaround .

Early in the season, Coulthard also warned that the team would "bounce back, but with massive penalties" due to the budget cap constraints that would limit how much they can spend to dig out of the hole .

Context and caution: Coulthard's view is the most bullish public prediction from a former driver, but it is not universally shared. Other pundits have been far more cautious; some have suggested it could take until 2027 just to see meaningful improvement . One former F1 presenter even identified a "red flag" in the team's performance trajectory . The gulf between Aston Martin and the front-runners — sometimes three or four seconds per lap — is massive, and recovering that gap under a budget cap is an enormous challenge .

What it all means

The storyline at Aston Martin is one of extreme contrast: a historic low in 2026 vs. a potential high as early as 2028. Alonso appears genuinely committed to the team, but his decision on 2027 will depend on whether he personally enjoys driving the new-generation cars. Newey is confident he can deliver the progress needed. Coulthard thinks that progress will lead to wins. The Hungarian GP upgrade showed the direction, but not the distance. The real test will come in 2027 and beyond, as Newey's influence fully takes hold and Honda works to solve its fundamental power unit problems.