How could the convergence of geopolitical conflicts and a potentially record-strength El Niño impact global food commodity prices and supply chains through summer 2027, and what are the key forecasts from Eurasia Group, JPMorgan, and analysts regarding the price outlook for wheat

Eurasia Group

Eurasia Group's latest analysis (reported July 31, 2026) forecasts that prices for wheat, corn, and rice could jump 10% to 18% by summer 2027, driven by the convergence of the Iran war, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the super El Niño . This is a broad commodity-basket range rather than individual crop-level numbers, and it reflects the compounding effect of multiple supply-side shocks hitting simultaneously.

JPMorgan

JPMorgan economists warned on July 24, 2026 that a super El Niño combined with elevated energy prices (stemming from the Middle East conflict) could add ~0.3 percentage points to global headline inflation in 2027, with emerging markets hit hardest . Key points from their analysis:

• A super El Niño on its own is estimated to add roughly 0.2 percentage points to global inflation, with the energy-price channel adding the rest .
• The bank assesses a meaningful probability that this "super" threshold will be reached, though they did not publish specific crop-by-crop price targets in available reporting .
• JPMorgan did not issue standalone wheat/corn/rice price forecasts in the public sources found; their contribution is focused on the macro-inflation channel.

Broader analyst and institutional consensus

Key uncertainty: ample inventories vs. compound shocks

A critical tension exists in the evidence. Global reserves of rice, soybeans, corn, and wheat are approaching all-time highs, which could soften El Niño's impact . However, analysts caution that export restrictions (a common policy response during food crises) could quickly erase that buffer . The war-driven spike in fertilizer prices — urea surged 46% month-on-month in early 2026 — raises input costs globally and could reduce planting in the 2026/27 season, adding a third layer of supply pressure . The World Bank's baseline assumes Middle East supply disruptions ease by mid-2026; if they do not, the price outlook worsens significantly .