How could the convergence of geopolitical conflicts and a potentially record-strength El Niño impact global food commodity prices and supply chains through summer 2027, and what are the key forecasts from Eurasia Group, JPMorgan, and analysts regarding the price outlook for wheat

The global food system is facing a "two shocks at once" scenario through summer 2027: ongoing wars (Iran, Russia-Ukraine) disrupting energy, fertilizer, and grain trade, layered with a rapidly intensifying "super" El Niño that is expected to peak in winter 2026/27 and diminish by summer 2027, though some effects may linger into 2028 . Below are the key forecasts.

Eurasia Group

Eurasia Group's latest analysis (reported July 31, 2026) forecasts that prices for wheat, corn, and rice could jump 10% to 18% by summer 2027, driven by the convergence of the Iran war, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the super El Niño . This is a broad commodity-basket range rather than individual crop-level numbers, and it reflects the compounding effect of multiple supply-side shocks hitting simultaneously.

JPMorgan

JPMorgan economists warned on July 24, 2026 that a super El Niño combined with elevated energy prices (stemming from the Middle East conflict) could add ~0.3 percentage points to global headline inflation in 2027, with emerging markets hit hardest . Key points from their analysis:

• A super El Niño on its own is estimated to add roughly 0.2 percentage points to global inflation, with the energy-price channel adding the rest .
• The bank assesses a meaningful probability that this "super" threshold will be reached, though they did not publish specific crop-by-crop price targets in available reporting .
• JPMorgan did not issue standalone wheat/corn/rice price forecasts in the public sources found; their contribution is focused on the macro-inflation channel.

Broader analyst and institutional consensus

Commodity	Key forecast / risk
Wheat	U.S. season-average farm price forecast at a 3-year high of $6.00–$6.50/bushel for 2026/27 (USDA WASDE & ERS) . Australian wheat production could fall 20%–60% year-on-year if extreme drought emerges . Durum wheat prices expected to rise sharply (EU JRC) .
Corn (maize)	USDA forecasts the season-average farm price rising to $4.20/bushel . Brazil's corn crop is "highly exposed" and expected to decline ~10% year-on-year . EU JRC projects slight global price increases .
Rice	World Bank warns that if El Niño materializes, rice output could fall 20%–50% in affected regions (South Asia, Southeast Asia, parts of Africa) . Rice prices are already tracking 9% higher month-on-month as of mid-2026 . Global reserves are near all-time highs, which may partially buffer the shock .
Overall food inflation	IMF projects food prices will increase 6.0% in 2026 . World Bank baseline projects a 2.5% increase in the global food commodity price index for 2026, with risks "firmly tilted to the upside" . Broad El Niño-driven price shock estimates range from 10% to 50% across key staples depending on region and intensity . Allianz notes the shock is uneven — Asia faces the greatest disruption risk, while parts of Latin America could see oversupply .

Key uncertainty: ample inventories vs. compound shocks

A critical tension exists in the evidence. Global reserves of rice, soybeans, corn, and wheat are approaching all-time highs, which could soften El Niño's impact . However, analysts caution that export restrictions (a common policy response during food crises) could quickly erase that buffer . The war-driven spike in fertilizer prices — urea surged 46% month-on-month in early 2026 — raises input costs globally and could reduce planting in the 2026/27 season, adding a third layer of supply pressure . The World Bank's baseline assumes Middle East supply disruptions ease by mid-2026; if they do not, the price outlook worsens significantly .