Goldman Sachs' Key Asian FX Calls for 2025–2026

Asia's currency market is increasingly becoming a play on artificial intelligence, and Goldman Sachs has drawn a clear line between the winners and losers. The bank's research through mid-2025 to mid-2026 paints a picture of a region split by the AI-driven semiconductor boom and the energy supply shock .

The Big Idea: An 'AI-Driven Super Surplus'

Goldman Sachs argues that a structural shift is underway in Asia. The AI investment boom and surging semiconductor exports are generating record current-account surpluses in South Korea and Taiwan, creating sustained FX inflows that should strengthen their currencies. The bank calls this an "AI-driven super surplus" .

At the same time, higher energy costs are battering the external balances of net energy importers that lack exposure to the AI trade. The result, according to Goldman, is a two-track currency market where performance depends on one key question: Are you an AI supplier or an energy buyer?

Bullish: South Korean Won (KRW), Taiwan Dollar (TWD), Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

Goldman Sachs identified these three as its top Asian FX picks .

South Korean won: The bank forecasts South Korea's current-account surplus will approach $300 billion (13.9% of GDP) — a record level — as AI-driven chip exports more than offset any drag from higher energy costs . Goldman economists led by Andrew Tilton also expect the Bank of Korea to deliver two 25-basis-point rate hikes in the second half of 2026 to manage overheating, which would further support the won .

Taiwan dollar: Taiwan's current-account surplus is forecast around 25% of GDP, among the highest globally . Goldman describes itself as "more bullish than the street" on Taiwan's growth, citing its deep integration into AI and advanced semiconductor supply chains .

Malaysian ringgit: Malaysia benefits as a key node in the AI supply chain (chip assembly, testing, data center investment). Goldman forecasts the currency to strengthen to 3.95 per dollar, which would be the highest in seven years, as capital flows into AI-related infrastructure projects . The ringgit has been one of Asia's best-performing currencies, and Goldman expects its outperformance to continue .

Bearish: Thai Baht (THB), Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), Philippine Peso (PHP)

Goldman holds a structurally bearish view on these three currencies, classifying them as "energy-importing, non-AI beneficiaries" vulnerable to terms-of-trade shocks .

Core rationale: These economies are net energy importers with less exposure to the AI/semiconductor boom. Higher commodity and energy costs erode their current-account balances, while their central banks have less room to raise rates without hurting domestic demand .

Thai baht: Goldman cites Thailand's vulnerability to rising energy costs and a tourism-reliant economy that faces headwinds from a strong dollar and global trade uncertainty. The baht is expected to resume weakening .

Indonesian rupiah: Pressure comes from Indonesia's energy import bill, a widening current-account deficit, and external financing risks. The rupiah is seen as structurally underperforming versus the AI-linked currencies .

Philippine peso: Goldman reiterated its bearish stance on the PHP, citing ongoing macroeconomic challenges including external imbalances and limited reserve buffers .

Neutral on the Singapore Dollar (SGD)

Goldman includes the Singapore dollar in the group of AI-linked currencies that have outperformed broader Asian FX, but its stance is more measured .

The bank noted that central banks are likely to increase allocations to the SGD as part of reserve diversification away from the US dollar . However, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintains a strong-managed float, which limits outsized appreciation. The SGD is classified as a "beneficiary but not a top pick" — structurally supported but with less upside surprise potential than the three bullish calls .

The Chinese Yuan (CNY): Goldman's 'Highest Conviction' Trade

Goldman holds a strongly bullish long-term appreciation view on the yuan, calling it one of its "highest conviction" trades .

Undervaluation estimate: Goldman says the yuan is 20–25% undervalued against the US dollar based on trade-weighted fundamental models that project the optimal exchange rate needed to sustain China's external surplus .

Near-term path: In May 2025, Goldman lifted its yuan forecast to 7.20 per dollar for 3 months, 7.10 for 6 months, and a 12-month target of 7.00 per dollar as US-China trade negotiations progressed .

Further out: By mid-2026, Goldman maintained a 12-month USD/CNY view of 6.50, anticipating gradual but sustained yuan appreciation driven by China's massive export strength, external surplus, and potential central bank reserve diversification into the yuan .

The Bottom Line

Goldman Sachs' Asia FX calls are a direct reflection of a single dominant theme: the AI-driven divergence in trade balances. The bank sees the won, Taiwan dollar, and ringgit as beneficiaries of a structural shift that will take years to play out, while the baht, rupiah, and peso remain under pressure from energy costs. The yuan, meanwhile, stands apart as a deeply undervalued currency that Goldman expects to grind stronger over time.

For traders and investors, the key takeaway is clear: in 2025–2026, Asia's currency market is not a single trade — it's a bet on which economies are selling the picks and shovels of the AI revolution.