Rubio Declares the 'Anchorage Formula' Dead: What the Manila Meeting Means for the Ukraine War

The July 2026 meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Manila confirmed what many analysts had suspected for months: the peace framework born out of the 2025 Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage, Alaska, is dead . The talks yielded no breakthroughs, no new plan, and left both sides publicly at odds over what—if anything—was ever agreed upon . Here is a fact-checked breakdown of the key developments, the conflicting narratives, and where the conflict stands.

The Manila Meeting: A 35-Minute Impasse

Rubio and Lavrov met for approximately 35 to 50 minutes on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila on July 23, 2026 . Both sides agreed the discussion was "frank" and "good" but signaled that no progress was made toward a resolution of the war in Ukraine . Rubio, speaking to reporters afterward, offered the bluntest assessment yet of the prior U.S.-Russia diplomatic track .

Rubio: 'The Proposals Put Forward in Anchorage Have Failed'

Rubio directly stated that the peace proposals discussed at the August 2025 summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, had collapsed . "The proposals put forward in Anchorage have failed. Ukrainians did not agree to them. We need to look for new ideas," Rubio told reporters . He said the proposals—sometimes referred to internally as the "3+2" plan, which reportedly involved the division of territories—were unacceptable to Kyiv . Rubio added that Washington remains ready to play a "constructive role" in ending the war but that "fresh approaches" are necessary to break the impasse .

Russia's Response: Demand for Clarity

The Russian reaction was swift and pointed. Lavrov publicly challenged Rubio's account, demanding to know "who exactly failed" in Anchorage . He insisted that Moscow had accepted proposals put forward by the United States at the summit and that Washington still has unfulfilled "obligations" from that meeting . Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova followed up on July 27, calling on the U.S. to "clarify" what was agreed in Anchorage before presenting new proposals, asserting that the authorship of the "Anchorage formula" belonged to the United States, not Russia . The Kremlin, through spokesman Dmitry Peskov, said it is not hopeful that a peace deal can be concluded soon, urging against "excessive optimism" .

The Core Disagreement: Was There Ever a Deal?

At the heart of the diplomatic standoff is a fundamental dispute over what the Anchorage summit actually produced .

• The U.S. position: No binding agreement was reached. Rubio has repeatedly denied the Russian narrative that the U.S. and Russia settled on a framework to end the war . The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) describes Moscow's invocation of the "Anchorage agreements" as an unverified claim used to fake peace intent .
• The Russian position: A framework was discussed and accepted by Moscow, often referred to as the "spirit of Anchorage" . Russian officials cite these as the basis for further negotiations .
• Putin's own admission: On June 30, 2026, Putin himself told a state television reporter, "There were indeed no agreements reached in Anchorage" to end the war, contradicting the earlier Kremlin position . He said "nobody signed anything" but that they discussed "certain possibilities" for ending the conflict .

U.S. Arms to Ukraine Continue, But Through NATO

While the U.S. has not made new direct aid commitments since President Trump took office in January 2025, weapons continue to flow to Kyiv through a structural shift in Western support .

• The PURL mechanism: NATO's Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) coordinates the purchase of critical U.S. defense equipment by NATO allies and partners for Ukraine . This initiative allows Ukraine to receive U.S.-manufactured arms without direct U.S. government aid packages .
• Allied contributions: Six NATO member states contributed $2.06 billion toward U.S. equipment for Ukraine between August 2025 and early 2026 . NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has expressed confidence that allies will allocate around $15 billion in 2026 under this program .
• Steady supply: A NATO official stated in December 2025 that arms provision to Kyiv "remained steady" despite Trump's decision to cease direct contributions . European countries now collectively provide more aid than the U.S. .

The Iran Campaign and the Slowdown in Peace Efforts

Multiple sources confirm that U.S.-led peace efforts slowed because of the Trump administration's focus on its military campaign against Iran . The Manila meeting took place against a backdrop of the U.S. diplomatic bandwidth being diverted, though specific details of the Iran campaign are not elaborated in the available sources .

What Remains at Stake: Territory and NATO Membership

The public positions of the two sides remain fundamentally irreconcilable, which explains the impasse .

• Russia insists on terms it says were agreed in Anchorage, which reportedly included Ukrainian territorial concessions (ceding occupied regions) and a ban on NATO membership for Ukraine .
• Ukraine rejected the Anchorage proposals outright. The refusal to cede territory or forego NATO membership is what Rubio explicitly cited as the reason the framework collapsed .
• Zelensky has stated readiness to sign a peace deal, but only on terms Kyiv can accept, rejecting the Russian interpretation of the Anchorage meeting .

With no new plan from Washington, no softening from Moscow, and Kyiv refusing the prior terms, the war continues without a diplomatic off-ramp in sight.