The Dual Chokepoint Crisis: How Houthi and Hormuz Blockades Threaten a Quarter of Global Oil Supply

What happened at Bab el-Mandeb

The immediate trigger for the shipping collapse was a Houthi drone-and-missile strike on Saudi oil facilities along the Red Sea coast . Only 11 commodity vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 26, according to vessel-tracking data from Kpler . The attack was the latest escalation in a broader campaign: on July 20, the Houthis declared a "maritime embargo" against Saudi Arabia, saying they had closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi-linked shipping effective immediately . The group said the blockade was retaliation for what it described as a Saudi siege of Yemen .

Saudi crude loadings through Bab el-Mandeb plunged 36% in just two weeks, falling to 6.1 million barrels per day in the week of July 13 from a peak of 9.5 million on June 29, according to Kpler data . AXSMarine data showed daily transits falling from more than 34 vessels in the first week of July to 14 in the week to July 16 — a 59% decline .

The Strait of Hormuz: the first chokepoint

Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been at a near standstill since February 28, 2026, when the US and Israel launched an air war against Iran . By July 9, only two tankers had sailed through the strait in the preceding days . The strait normally carries about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments .

The Brookings Institution reports that insurance is now unavailable or prohibitively expensive for vessels transiting the strait, and seafarers refuse to make the journey, meaning the strait is "effectively closed" . Bloomberg estimates the closure is reducing global oil flows by roughly 11 million barrels per day, leaving a ~9 million barrel/day shortfall — more than the combined oil consumption of the UK, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy . The World Bank called the disruption "the largest oil market disruption in history," with global oil supply crashing by 10.1 million barrels per day in March 2026 .

The dual chokepoint threat

Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz are now under declared threat simultaneously . Analysts note that a full southern closure of Bab el-Mandeb would remove roughly 7% of global crude supply from the water . Combined, the two chokepoints threaten roughly a quarter of global oil and gas supply . The Strait of Hormuz alone handled about 20% of global oil shipments pre-crisis , and a simultaneous disruption of both routes would cut off Saudi Arabia's only remaining export bypass route — the Yanbu pipeline to the Red Sea .

Oil prices: Brent above $100

Brent crude crossed $100 per barrel on July 23, 2026, for the first time since May 2026, driven by Houthi drone-and-missile strikes on two Saudi tankers — the Encelia and Layla — in the Red Sea . Brent settled at $100.69, up 7% on the session, according to Reuters . The New York Times reported that oil prices remained close to $100 on July 24 after Iran dismissed a US cease-fire proposal . Brent prices are now nearly 40% higher than when the Iran war began in February . Analysts have warned Brent could exceed $120 if disruptions persist .

Saudi Arabia's rerouting dilemma

When the Strait of Hormuz closed, Saudi Arabia tried to bypass it by exporting oil from its Red Sea terminals through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal . More than 70% of Saudi exports were diverted through the Red Sea port of Yanbu, which carries 75% of the kingdom's entire oil exports . The Houthi blockade now threatens that alternative route directly . With Bab el-Mandeb under blockade and Hormuz effectively closed, Saudi exports face a costly rerouting dilemma: either the long Cape of Good Hope detour around Africa — adding weeks of transit time and millions in fuel costs — or near-total export paralysis .

Outlook

Analysts cited by multiple outlets warn that oil prices will continue to rise without a meaningful shift toward negotiations . Iran dismissed a US cease-fire proposal in late July, and the US reimposed a naval blockade of Iran, escalating hostilities further . The Houthis have warned they will resume attacks if the Gaza ceasefire breaks down or the Iran war escalates . With insurance effectively unavailable for Hormuz transits and seafarers refusing to sail, both chokepoints remain effectively closed to commercial traffic . The dual chokepoint crisis shows no sign of abating.