Iran Sold $18 Billion in Oil During War and Ceasefire, Surpassing Budget Targets Despite Sanctions

Iran's Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad made a series of announcements in July 2026 detailing the country's oil revenue performance during a period of war and a subsequent ceasefire with the United States. His statements, amplified by state media and international wire services, reveal how Tehran managed to sell billions of dollars in crude despite active conflict, a U.S. naval blockade, and the eventual revocation of a temporary sanctions waiver. The figures carry significant implications for the effectiveness of U.S. economic pressure and Iran's potential earnings under a full normalization scenario.

Total Revenue and the War vs. Ceasefire Breakdown

Paknejad announced that Iran sold a total of $18 billion worth of oil from the start of the conflict through the ceasefire period . The breakdown is:

• $11.5 billion during the war period
• $6.5 billion during the ceasefire period

Paknejad explained that the ceasefire period saw lower risks for tanker traffic, which helped increase exports and enabled the sale of part of an estimated 100 million barrels of stored crude oil and gas condensate . The reduced shipping risk allowed Iran to move a significant volume of crude beyond the blockade line and access customers it had struggled to reach during active hostilities .

Comparison to Iran's Annual Budget Target

Paknejad stated that the $18 billion total constituted more than 60% of the oil revenue projected in Iran's annual budget . Independent budget reporting from late 2025 estimated Iran's total crude oil revenue target for the Iranian year 1405 (starting March 2026) at approximately $21 billion, based on projected sales of about 1 million barrels per day at $57 per barrel . The $18 billion actual figure therefore exceeded what many expected Iran could achieve while under active blockade and war . Notably, some sources within Iran's own government and parliament research center had earlier warned that budget oil revenue projections might be overly optimistic even under normal conditions .

The U.S. Sanctions Waiver and Its Revocation

The temporary sales spurt during the ceasefire was made possible by a U.S. policy reversal that was quickly undone:

• Granting: As part of a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war, the U.S. granted a 60-day waiver (issued as "General License X") allowing Iranian oil sales . The waiver, announced on June 23, 2026, permitted dollar-based transactions for Iranian crude oil for the first time in over forty years .
• Duration: The waiver was issued roughly two weeks before revocation, meaning Iran had only a short window of legal sales .
• Revocation: On July 7, 2026, the Trump administration revoked the waiver after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The Treasury replaced General License X with a narrower waiver ("General License X1") that authorized no new oil sales after July 7 .
• Iran's response: Paknejad stated on July 14, 2026, that Iran's oil exports were continuing as usual despite the cancellation, because the ministry had maintained mechanisms for years to bypass and neutralize U.S. sanctions — and had kept those systems intact even during the temporary waiver . He noted Iran preserved its sanctions-evasion infrastructure "from the moment the temporary exemption took effect" under Article 10 of the MOU . "Time proved, after 15 days, that the enemy, true to its record, violated this clause," Paknejad said .

Impact on Crude Output Levels

Paknejad's announcements came against a backdrop of fluctuating production and export volumes during the conflict:

• During 2025 and early 2026, before the blockade and war, Iran's crude oil production hovered between 3.2–3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) .
• Output dropped to about 3.06 million bpd in March 2026, as the U.S. naval blockade (beginning mid-April 2026) sharply reduced exports .
• During the ceasefire / waiver period, Iran rapidly exported over 40 million barrels of crude oil after the U.S. removed its naval blockade, according to parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf .
• The ceasefire allowed Iran to sell oil at prices roughly 20% higher than before the war .
• The Wall Street Journal estimated that Iran exported roughly 70 million barrels worth an estimated $5–6 billion during the month-long suspension of the U.S. blockade, rapidly rebuilding a cash buffer .

Estimated Potential Under Fully Lifted Sanctions

Under a full peace accord, analysts and reports estimated Iran could generate over $60 billion annually in oil revenue if pre-conflict production levels (around 3.5–4 million bpd of crude plus condensate) were fully restored and sanctions were permanently removed . The $18 billion achieved during wartime and the ceasefire was therefore roughly 30% or less of the potential annual revenue under a full normalization scenario . Paknejad himself had previously stated that if U.S. sanctions were lifted, Iran could boost its crude output to near 2015 levels — around 3.8 million bpd — within a year .

Context of Pre-War Revenue

For comparison, in 2025 Iran's oil exports surged to multi-year highs through clandestine shipments (mainly to China), but the government's earnings actually fell due to deep discounts and sanctions-evasion costs . Iran was selling more oil but making less money per barrel . The wartime $18 billion figure, while impressive against budget expectations, came at a time when global crude prices had spiked due to the conflict itself, providing an unusual tailwind that may not persist under normal conditions.