US suspends Iran strikes after 13 nights as Houthis attack Saudi oil and Brent hits $100

Houthi strikes hit Saudi Aramco ports as Greek Patriot intercepts missiles

On Saturday, July 25, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels launched coordinated missile and drone strikes targeting Saudi Aramco oil facilities at two Red Sea ports — Yanbu and Jizan — opening what Reuters described as "a second front" in the escalating conflict . Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree claimed the group had targeted and successfully struck sites belonging to Saudi state oil giant Aramco in both locations . Video shared on social media and verified by Reuters showed a large column of smoke rising from the direction of the Aramco refinery in Jizan .

In Yanbu, two ballistic missiles fired from Yemen toward oil refineries were intercepted by a Greek-operated Patriot air defense battery deployed in Saudi Arabia as part of the Hellenic Force in Saudi Arabia (ELDYSA) . Greek military sources confirmed the battery later also shot down a drone approaching from Yemen over the same area . This interception on July 25 was a separate event from an earlier March 19 interception, in which the same Greek Patriot unit shot down two Iranian ballistic missiles targeting the SAMREF refinery in Yanbu .

Dual chokepoint threats: Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb

Two of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints are under simultaneous pressure, a rare and dangerous scenario for global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked by Iran since February 28, 2026, when the US and Israel launched an air war against Iran . The IRGC announced the strait closed to all vessel traffic to and from ports of the US, Israel, and their allies, and the US insists it is open despite "few ships risking passage" . The Bab el-Mandeb strait in the Red Sea is now under threat from Houthi attacks on Saudi port infrastructure and Red Sea shipping routes, threatening an alternative route for Persian Gulf oil and potentially compounding the supply disruption . Citi analysts warned that the Bab el-Mandeb threat could mark the first time both the world's most critical energy chokepoints are under threat simultaneously .

Brent crude surges past $100 per barrel

The dual-front supply disruption drove oil prices sharply higher. Brent crude surged past $100 per barrel on Thursday, July 23, with front-month futures closing in London at $100.68/barrel, a 7% increase . This was the first time Brent crossed $100 since May 2026, driven by the escalating risk premium from Houthi Red Sea attacks alongside the prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure .

Barclays had already lifted its 2026 Brent forecast to $100/barrel in May, citing prolonged Hormuz disruption . Goldman Sachs had estimated an $18/barrel real-time risk premium from the crisis and warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed for another month, Brent could average around $120/barrel in the third quarter and $115 in the fourth . The price spike reflected fears that the new Houthi front could further squeeze an already tight oil market, with the Bab el-Mandeb strait serving as a critical alternative export route for Persian Gulf producers unable to transit Hormuz .

The uncertain path forward

As of July 26, the pause in US airstrikes remained fragile. Analysts and officials characterized it as a test of whether diplomacy could gain traction — or whether it would prove to be merely a tactical pause before a return to large-scale combat . The Houthi escalation on July 25, occurring just one day after the US paused its own strikes, added a volatile new dimension to the crisis and underscored the interconnected nature of the Iran-aligned proxy network. The situation remained highly fluid, with the outcome of Oman-brokered talks and the potential for further Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure the key variables to watch.