The bank's valuation range is intentionally wide:

• Bull case: $600 per share (≈ $8 trillion market cap)
• Base case (price target): $300 per share
• Bear case: $75 per share

That wide range reflects the extreme uncertainty around how (and whether) SpaceX will monetize its AI and orbital compute ambitions. Even Morgan Stanley's own base case carries enormous risks: the bank disclosed massive funding risk of roughly $672-$700 billion and projects no positive free cash flow until 2035 .

The Collapse: From $225 to $113 in Five Weeks

SpaceX's post-IPO journey has been a wild ride. The company went public on June 12, 2026 at $135 per share, opened at $150, and peaked at $225.64 on June 16 — a 67% surge from the listing price in just four sessions .

Then the reversal came fast. By June 23, the stock had fallen 16% in a single day to ~$154.60, wiping out over $600 billion in market cap . By July 24, SPCX was trading near $113 — close to its all-time low and well below its IPO price . The stock has completely reversed all post-IPO gains.

The Record Lockup Expiration: $116 Billion in Shares Set to Unlock

The biggest catalyst for further downside may still be ahead. SpaceX will report its first quarterly earnings as a public company on August 4, 2026 . Two days later, on August 6, the first lockup tranche expires, allowing insiders and employees to sell ~911.5 million shares — worth roughly $109 to $123 billion at current prices .

To put that in perspective: this single lockup expiration is roughly 68 times the size of a typical large-cap lockup expiry . Cumulative lockups through December 2026 would raise the number of tradable shares to 40% of the float .

This supply overhang is a major reason analysts expect continued downward pressure . Many investors, Morgan Stanley noted, expect the stock to hit $100 precisely when those lockup shares become tradable .

How the Sum-of-the-Parts Math Works

Morgan Stanley's warning is rooted in a simple sum-of-the-parts framework. The bank's model assigns value to SpaceX's distinct business lines:

• At $300 (MS price target): The AI business is valued substantially. The core rocket launch and Starlink operations alone would not support that price, so the premium comes entirely from AI infrastructure and orbital compute .
• At ~$113 (current price): AI value is already heavily discounted.
• At $100: The rocket-launch and Starlink businesses would absorb essentially the entire valuation, leaving zero or negative implied value for AI .

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas put it plainly: "We believe the current disconnect between increasingly bearish investor sentiment and largely unchanged fundamentals creates an attractive entry point in SpaceX shares" . In other words, the bank remains bullish on SpaceX's fundamental AI story — but the market is pricing it as if that story doesn't exist.

The Bottom Line

The $100 price level is a critical threshold for SpaceX. If the stock reaches it — and many analysts expect exactly that as lockup shares flood the market in early August — Morgan Stanley's model says investors would be getting SpaceX's rocket and Starlink businesses at a fair price but effectively receiving its AI business for free.

Whether that represents a buying opportunity or a value trap depends on whether SpaceX can actually deliver on its orbital compute vision — and whether it can survive the funding gauntlet of nearly $700 billion in capital needs between now and 2035 without positive free cash flow .

The bank's valuation range is intentionally wide:

• Bull case: $600 per share (≈ $8 trillion market cap)
• Base case (price target): $300 per share
• Bear case: $75 per share

That wide range reflects the extreme uncertainty around how (and whether) SpaceX will monetize its AI and orbital compute ambitions. Even Morgan Stanley's own base case carries enormous risks: the bank disclosed massive funding risk of roughly $672-$700 billion and projects no positive free cash flow until 2035 .

The Collapse: From $225 to $113 in Five Weeks

SpaceX's post-IPO journey has been a wild ride. The company went public on June 12, 2026 at $135 per share, opened at $150, and peaked at $225.64 on June 16 — a 67% surge from the listing price in just four sessions .

Then the reversal came fast. By June 23, the stock had fallen 16% in a single day to ~$154.60, wiping out over $600 billion in market cap . By July 24, SPCX was trading near $113 — close to its all-time low and well below its IPO price . The stock has completely reversed all post-IPO gains.

The Record Lockup Expiration: $116 Billion in Shares Set to Unlock

The biggest catalyst for further downside may still be ahead. SpaceX will report its first quarterly earnings as a public company on August 4, 2026 . Two days later, on August 6, the first lockup tranche expires, allowing insiders and employees to sell ~911.5 million shares — worth roughly $109 to $123 billion at current prices .

To put that in perspective: this single lockup expiration is roughly 68 times the size of a typical large-cap lockup expiry . Cumulative lockups through December 2026 would raise the number of tradable shares to 40% of the float .

This supply overhang is a major reason analysts expect continued downward pressure . Many investors, Morgan Stanley noted, expect the stock to hit $100 precisely when those lockup shares become tradable .

How the Sum-of-the-Parts Math Works

Morgan Stanley's warning is rooted in a simple sum-of-the-parts framework. The bank's model assigns value to SpaceX's distinct business lines:

• At $300 (MS price target): The AI business is valued substantially. The core rocket launch and Starlink operations alone would not support that price, so the premium comes entirely from AI infrastructure and orbital compute .
• At ~$113 (current price): AI value is already heavily discounted.
• At $100: The rocket-launch and Starlink businesses would absorb essentially the entire valuation, leaving zero or negative implied value for AI .

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas put it plainly: "We believe the current disconnect between increasingly bearish investor sentiment and largely unchanged fundamentals creates an attractive entry point in SpaceX shares" . In other words, the bank remains bullish on SpaceX's fundamental AI story — but the market is pricing it as if that story doesn't exist.

The Bottom Line

The $100 price level is a critical threshold for SpaceX. If the stock reaches it — and many analysts expect exactly that as lockup shares flood the market in early August — Morgan Stanley's model says investors would be getting SpaceX's rocket and Starlink businesses at a fair price but effectively receiving its AI business for free.

Whether that represents a buying opportunity or a value trap depends on whether SpaceX can actually deliver on its orbital compute vision — and whether it can survive the funding gauntlet of nearly $700 billion in capital needs between now and 2035 without positive free cash flow .