ECB Holds Rates at 2.25% in July 2026 — Here's What It Means for September

Why the ECB Paused

The ECB paused primarily to buy time to assess the fallout from renewed Middle East conflict and the associated energy disruption . This pause came just six weeks after the bank raised rates by 25 basis points in June — its first increase since June 2025. The Governing Council wanted to gauge how the oil-price shock was transmitting through the eurozone economy before committing to another move .

A June 11 Reuters report had already flagged that officials were inclined to pause if energy prices remained stable . When oil subsequently spiked to $100/barrel, that caution was reinforced . The ECB described the pause as a "hawkish hold" — not a signal that the tightening cycle is over, but a tactical breather to gather more data.

Clear Signal About a September Hike

Despite the pause, the ECB held the door wide open to a September rate increase . The official statement and accompanying communications were deliberately hawkish, reiterating that inflation remains the dominant risk and that further tightening may be needed . Reuters reported that the central bank "will hold the door wide open to another rate hike in September" .

This was widely interpreted as a strong signal that a move at the September 10 meeting is the base case, barring a material deterioration in economic conditions or a rapid easing of energy prices.

Market-Implied Probability of a September Rate Increase

Swap markets assign roughly a 60%–62% probability of a 25 bp hike at the September 10, 2026 meeting . A separate measure from ecb-watch.eu put the odds at 61.7% for a move to 2.50% . By the October 29 meeting, markets price a roughly 63%–74% chance that rates reach 2.50% or higher .

These probabilities are dynamic and shift with each new data point on inflation, oil prices, and geopolitical developments.

Economist Surveys and Swap Markets: Number and Timing of Additional Hikes

• Economist survey (European Parliament brief, July 2026): The median respondent expects the ECB to raise the deposit rate by another 25 bp in September, bringing it to 2.50%, and to hold there for the remainder of 2026 .
• Swap markets (as of July 23): Traders are pricing in a September hike as the next move, with oil's return to $100 reinforcing bets that further tightening will be needed . Earlier ECB account data from June showed markets assigning an 84% probability of a third 25 bp hike by end-2026 , though subsequent oil price volatility may have shifted those odds.
• Overall picture: Consensus points to at least one more hike (September), with a possible second move (to 2.75%) later in 2026 heavily dependent on energy and geopolitical developments .

Geopolitical and Energy Factors Driving the Outlook

The dominant driver is the Middle East conflict (Iran/US tensions) and its impact on energy prices . Oil hit $100/barrel on July 23, a fresh spike that reignites upward pressure on inflation . The ECB's baseline assumes that if oil prices decline in line with futures markets, inflation can return to target — but the outlook is highly uncertain .

Earlier peace efforts in mid-2026 briefly lowered oil prices and reduced the urgency to hike , but the resurgence of fighting reversed that dynamic. The ECB's April account noted that investors saw inflation as the dominant risk and were pricing 73 bp of cumulative hikes for 2026 .

ECB Inflation Projections Through 2028

The ECB's June 2026 Eurosystem staff projections show the following path for headline inflation:

• 2026: Headline HICP inflation peaking at 3.4% in the second half of 2026, driven by the Middle East energy shock . The March 2026 baseline had already been revised up to 2.6% (from 1.9% in December 2025) .
• 2027: Inflation expected to remain above 3.0% into early 2027, then decline toward 2.0% . The ECB's March forecast had 2027 at 2.0% . A Reuters report on the ECB's survey of professional forecasters in May said inflation was expected to "swiftly decline, aligning with the 2% target by the following year" .
• 2028: If oil prices follow the futures curve downward, inflation should return to the 2% target in 2028 . The ECB stresses that this outlook carries high uncertainty .

Divergent Views: Pierre Wunsch vs. Martins Kazaks

Both Governing Council members shifted their tone notably in late June 2026, but their emphasis differs:

Pierre Wunsch (Belgium, generally considered a hawk): On June 30, Wunsch told Bloomberg TV that "the case for another rate hike isn't as strong now" after the US-Iran deal "more or less" removed the origin of the energy shock . However, in a Reuters interview on June 19, he warned that if services inflation remained elevated, "it might be prudent to increase rates by another 25 basis points" . By late June he was saying the council "might need another hike, but not necessarily in July" .

Martins Kazaks (Latvia, generally considered a centrist/dove): On June 30, Kazaks said the ECB is "in no rush to raise interest rates again" after peace efforts lowered oil and reduced inflation risks, and that progress toward ending hostilities had "weakened the overall case for more hikes" . Earlier, in April, he had warned against assuming the ECB's next move would be a hike at all, saying that while he saw no reason to challenge market expectations for two increases, that was "just one of several scenarios" .

Key difference: Wunsch leans toward still needing a hike (just not in July), citing lagging services inflation as a risk . Kazaks is more dovish, emphasizing that the probability of severe negative scenarios has "fallen massively" and there is "no need for multiple ECB hikes in a rushed way" . A Bloomberg summary characterizes the broader divide as hawks arguing that inflationary pressures from the US-Iran conflict are still propagating via wages and services, while doves contend oil has retreated and second-round effects are unlikely .