Kuehne+Nagel Raises Profit Guidance Again as Middle East Shipping Crisis Deepens

The critical caution: Paul also publicly stated that the company sees no broad return to normal Middle East shipping in the near term, reflecting the persistent and escalating regional risks .

Suez Canal and Red Sea Resumption: Faltering and Uncertain

The situation on the Suez Canal remains highly volatile, with any progress toward normal operations repeatedly reversed:

• March 2026 — Major setback: After a phased return began in early 2026, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd paused all Suez and Red Sea transits following an escalation of Middle East conflict, including the onset of Strait of Hormuz hostilities .
• July 6, 2026 — Tentative resumption: Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced they would resume some sailings through the Suez Canal under their Gemini joint network. However, shares of both companies fell as the market worried about downward pressure on freight rates .
• July 22–23, 2026 — New reversals: Shipping data shows more ships changing course away from the Red Sea after fresh Houthi threats emerged just weeks later . Kuehne+Nagel's CEO publicly dismissed the idea of a stable, broad-based return to normal operations .

Bottom line: The Suez Canal is not reliably open for most commercial traffic. The tentative July 6 resumption by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd appears fragile and limited to specific services — not a general reopening of the trade artery.

New CMA CGM Surcharges: A Cascade of Fees

The French shipping giant CMA CGM has introduced a wave of new surcharges across multiple trade lanes in July and August 2026, reflecting skyrocketing bunker fuel costs, longer diversion routes, and elevated insurance and security premiums:

These fees are being layered on top of existing general rate increases, creating significant cost pressure for importers and exporters on multiple trade lanes.

Broader Global Impact: Beyond Shipping Routes

The crisis has escalated beyond the Red Sea into a more severe Strait of Hormuz conflict involving Iran, which has disrupted approximately 20% of global oil and LNG flows .

Energy markets: Crude oil and LNG prices have surged dramatically. At one point, roughly 90% of Strait of Hormuz traffic was restricted — affecting approximately 10 million barrels per day of oil shipments . Brent crude prices jumped 10–13% in early trading, with analysts warning prices could reach $100 per barrel if disruptions persist .

Food security: The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations has issued a stark warning, stating the Strait of Hormuz closure is "not a temporary disruption but the beginning of a systemic agrifood shock" that could trigger a severe global food price crisis within 6–12 months . Fertilizer supply chains are also critically threatened, as the disruption has spread across regional shipping routes .

Commodity markets: Aluminum, fertilizer, and helium have all suffered supply disruptions and price spikes due to the crisis . The IMF notes that large energy importers in Asia and Europe bear the brunt of higher fuel and input costs .

Trade routes and inflation: Most container and tanker traffic continues to divert around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days of transit time and significant extra fuel costs . The World Bank, in a July 2026 report, noted that consumer prices had not yet shown broad spillover, partly because oil sector impacts had been somewhat contained — but warned the risk of prolonged disruption feeding into global inflation is rising .

Key uncertainty: The situation remains fluid. The tentative July 6 resumption by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd appears to be already reversing, and the broader Strait of Hormuz crisis shows no signs of near-term resolution. For businesses, the safe assumption is that high freight costs, extended transit times, and supply chain volatility will persist through the remainder of 2026.