Trump's Pickaxe Mountain ultimatum: A fact-checked breakdown of the Iran nuclear standoff

President Donald Trump has escalated his rhetoric against Iran's nuclear program by threatening to strike Pickaxe Mountain, a fortified underground facility buried deep in the Zagros mountain range. This article fact-checks the key claims made by Trump, Israeli intelligence, Iran's military command, and US defense officials using available reporting.

What Trump said about striking Pickaxe Mountain

On July 13, 2026, President Trump told the Hugh Hewitt Show: "We're going to take out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ready" . He later repeated the threat to reporters, saying the US would hit the site "probably pretty soon" and called it "a possible target for a nice big fat shot right near the front door" .

Trump described Pickaxe Mountain as a heavily fortified site hosting two deeply buried tunnel complexes near Iran's damaged Natanz enrichment facility . He acknowledged that US intelligence sees "no activity" there but insisted Washington would "probably give Pickaxe a shot relatively soon" .

What Israel says is stored inside

Israeli intelligence assessed that Iran moved thousands of uranium-enrichment centrifuges into tunnels deep inside Pickaxe Mountain last autumn (fall 2025), according to Israeli and US officials cited by the Wall Street Journal . The assessment, shared with Washington, indicates the centrifuges were transferred after US and Israeli airstrikes heavily damaged Iran's three primary nuclear facilities during the June 2025 conflict .

Moving centrifuges to Pickaxe Mountain does not necessarily mean Iran is establishing an enrichment facility there, analysts note . The site could also serve as protected storage for sensitive equipment or — in a more alarming scenario — as a location for nuclear weapon assembly work . The true activity inside the mountain remains unclear because the IAEA has never been granted access .

Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters response

Iran's top joint military command, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, issued a stark warning in response to Trump's threats. On July 21, the headquarters said that if the US attacks Iran's nuclear or other sensitive facilities, Tehran will consider it an expansion of the war and target all US interests and those of its allies across the region .

The command's spokesperson, Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaghari, warned that if the US strikes Iran's key infrastructure, "everything that, out of Iran's restraint, has so far remained intact — namely all infrastructure in the region — will be crushed under the powerful blows of Iran's armed forces" . Major General Ali Abdollahi, the headquarters commander, separately warned the US that any new aggression would be met with a "decisive and devastating" response .

Cost of the US campaign: $37.5 billion and rising

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told the Senate Appropriations Committee on July 21 that the US war with Iran has cost approximately $37.5 billion so far . This represents an increase of about $12 billion from the $25 billion estimate he provided in late April 2026 . The BBC and Al Jazeera confirmed the figure independently .

Hegseth's estimate came during a hearing where he defended a $1.5 trillion defense budget request that included nearly $70 billion specifically for the Iran war . Earlier cost estimates tracked steady escalation: $11 billion in the first week of the conflict, $25 billion by late April, $29 billion by mid-May, and now $37.5 billion in late July .

CENTCOM's 11th consecutive night of strikes

US Central Command conducted the 11th consecutive night of airstrikes against Iranian targets as part of the ongoing campaign . Reporting from July 22 indicates the barrage followed Trump's warning that the campaign would intensify . Multiple outlets confirm the sustained nightly strike campaign, though the exact text of CENTCOM's 11th-night press release was not captured in the available search results .

Houthi escalation and oil market impact

Yemen's Houthi forces escalated the conflict by declaring a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, threatening global oil supply through Red Sea and Persian Gulf chokepoints [question prompt]. While the user's question references this blockade and a Brent crude price of $91 per barrel, the search results did not return direct confirmation of the specific blockade announcement text or exact $91 Brent figure. The broader context of oil market disruption and Houthi threats is consistent with regional escalation patterns, but readers should treat those specific claims with caution pending additional sourcing.

What is Pickaxe Mountain?

Pickaxe Mountain, known locally as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, is an underground facility about 1.6 kilometers south of Iran's primary Natanz uranium enrichment site . Construction began in fall 2020 . Satellite imagery analyzed by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) shows the site is still under construction and not yet operational . The facility is buried so deeply that experts assess it may be beyond the reach of the most powerful conventional bunker buster bombs in the US arsenal .