U.S.-Iran Conflict Day 10: Airstrikes, Kharg Island Threats, and the Collapse of the Ceasefire

Iran has retaliated by targeting U.S.-allied countries in the region and striking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz . Iran's Revolutionary Guards reported hitting two tankers in Hormuz .

Yemen's Houthis opened a new front on July 20, announcing a "maritime embargo" on Saudi Arabia, threatening to expand the conflict further . Kuwait reported a desalination plant hit for a second consecutive day .

Collapse of the Ceasefire

President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a Memorandum of Understanding on June 17 to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz . At the NATO summit on July 8, Trump declared the truce "over" after tanker attacks resumed, and the U.S. launched new strikes, effectively collapsing the ceasefire . The Council on Foreign Relations confirms the ceasefire "appears on the verge of collapse, as both sides trade strikes over alleged violations" .

Iranian Threat Against a Ground Invasion

On July 20, Iran warned the U.S. of "severe consequences" if it attempts a ground invasion of Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said its people were "counting down the days" to confront American forces .

U.S. Plans for Kharg Island and Pickaxe Mountain

According to two U.S. officials cited by CNN on July 15, Trump is weighing an operation to take Kharg Island and to bomb underground complexes at Pickaxe Mountain . He affirmed interest in both targets during interviews that week .

Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt that Pickaxe Mountain — a deeply buried suspected nuclear facility near Natanz — is "a possible target for a nice, big, fat shot right in the front door" . Satellite imagery analysis confirms Iran has continued construction at Pickaxe Mountain in violation of the MOU . The New York Times reported in April that the facility is so deeply buried it may withstand America's most advanced bunker-busting bombs .

U.S. Troop Deaths in Jordan

At least two U.S. soldiers were killed over the weekend in an Iranian attack on a U.S. base in Jordan, and another is listed as missing in action. A third American service member died in Iraq after a "controlled detonation" .

Pentagon's View: Kharg Island Seizure "Too Risky"

CNN reported, citing a senior Pentagon official and two administration officials, that plans for the U.S. military to capture Kharg Island have been drawn up for months but "repeatedly shelved because the operation was considered too risky" . The view inside the White House and Pentagon is that capturing the island "would be a very dangerous mission" .

Experts caution that seizing the island would expose U.S. troops to sustained Iranian missile and drone attacks from the nearby mainland, could drive oil prices sharply higher, and may still fail to end the war . About 5,000 Marines and 3,000 soldiers have already been deployed to the Middle East, with 10,000 more U.S. ground troops reportedly under consideration . Retired General Frank McKenzie argued the U.S. has the capability to seize the island, but critics warn the cost in lives and strategic risk is high .

Bottom Line

The conflict is in its most intense phase yet, with daily U.S. strikes, Iranian retaliation, a collapsed ceasefire, and active debate inside the administration over whether to escalate to ground seizure of Kharg Island — a move the Pentagon has consistently deemed too dangerous.