US-Iran Conflict Escalates: Oil Above $90, Dollar Surges, Troop Deaths in Jordan

By late July 2026, the United States and Iran are locked in an active military escalation that has erased a month-long pause in hostilities. What follows is a source-verified account of the key events, military actions, economic aftershocks, and strategic stakes.

The June 17 Peace Deal Collapses

On June 17, 2026, the US and Iran signed an interim memorandum of understanding (MoU) that offered a fragile path away from open conflict. Under the deal, Iran guaranteed safe passage for commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz and agreed not to charge tolls for 60 days. In return, the US lifted its naval blockade and temporarily suspended oil sanctions .

The truce lasted less than three weeks. On July 7, President Trump declared the agreement "over" after Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the strait, and the US launched renewed airstrikes . Iran's leadership quickly followed suit, also declaring the peace deal void and resuming hostilities .

Military Strikes and Casualties

The US military struck "dozens of targets" along the Iranian coastline, focusing on forces threatening the Strait of Hormuz . In retaliation, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched missile and drone attacks targeting US military facilities in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait . Reports also indicate attacks on radar systems in Oman and fuel depots in Bahrain .

The deadliest single incident occurred on July 18, when an Iranian ballistic missile and drone strike on a US base in Jordan killed two American service members and left another missing, confirmed by CENTCOM and the Pentagon . That brought the total number of US service members killed since the war began on February 28 to 16 . Broader reporting indicates at least 35 total deaths from US attacks in the latest escalation, though this figure may aggregate Iranian military casualties across multiple days of strikes .

The US then launched a ninth consecutive night of strikes on July 19, targeting Iranian forces in response to the troop deaths .

US Naval Blockade Reinstated

On July 13, President Trump announced the reinstatement of the US naval blockade on Iran. CENTCOM began enforcing the maritime blockade at 4:00 PM ET on July 14, covering all Iranian ports, oil terminals, and coastal areas . Trump also stated the US would charge a 20% fee on all cargo shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, claiming the fee would reimburse the US for providing security in the waterway . The blockade had first been imposed in mid-April and lifted only days after the June 17 MoU .

Economic and Market Fallout

Oil prices surged. On July 20, Brent crude futures climbed $2.69, or 3.05%, to $90.79 per barrel, the highest since June 11, as US-Iran attacks disrupted energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz . WTI crude rose to $84.68 per barrel . The spike followed a 15.9% weekly gain for Brent — its biggest since April . Oil had already jumped about 7% on July 7 alone when Trump first declared the ceasefire over .

The US dollar strengthened. The dollar index rose to around its highest levels of the week after US strikes resumed, with safe-haven demand pushing the greenback to 101.18 on July 8 and later to 100.69 on July 20 after pulling back from a three-day winning streak .

Risk-off sentiment hit other currencies. The Australian dollar and the euro (EUR/USD) came under pressure as risk appetite fell globally . The Philippine peso also weakened as part of broader risk-off sentiment in Asian emerging-market currencies tied to the conflict .

Stock markets declined. The S&P 500 dropped about 1% in midday trading on July 12 . The UK's FTSE 100 fell 1% on July 8, and the Dow Jones dropped 0.9% .

Global Risks and Broader Consequences

Major news outlets including the Associated Press, NPR, The New York Times, and Reuters all report growing fears that the unraveling of the ceasefire and intensifying tit-for-tat strikes could lead to a return to all-out war, destabilizing the Middle East and disrupting the global economy . The conflict has already weighed on stock markets, spiked oil prices, and added significant uncertainty to an already shaky global economy .

Caveat on Exact Figures

While the broad arc of events is well-supported across major outlets (NYT, Reuters, AP, NPR, CNBC), some specific figures — such as the exact dollar index value of 100.84 and the precise death toll of 35 — could not be verified with exact stated numbers from the search results. The dollar index was reported at "around its highest levels in roughly a week" (101.09–101.18) and later at 100.69, not at a precise 100.84 print . The 35-death figure may aggregate different casualty reports across multiple days of strikes. The core events and market moves are corroborated across multiple authoritative sources.