On July 8, President Donald Trump declared the interim ceasefire agreement with Iran "over," stating that the memorandum of understanding signed under Pakistani mediation was no longer in effect . Speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, Trump said, "To me, I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them" . Iran accused the U.S. of violating the peace agreement .
The same day, the U.S. military conducted a second round of strikes against Iranian positions in retaliation for the attacks on commercial vessels . CENTCOM announced it had hit more than 80 targets in Iran, including air-defense systems and boats belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps .
Brent crude jumped 5.2% to $78.02 per barrel as the market repriced the resumption of full conflict .
The U.S. conducted multiple consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian coastal targets. A third wave of strikes was reported by July 9, with operations continuing through at least six nights . Iran retaliated by expanding attacks on Gulf states . Air-raid sirens were activated in Bahrain and Kuwait as Iran launched retaliatory missile attacks .
Over the weekend of July 11-12, fresh U.S. airstrikes prompted Tehran to claim it had closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping . The U.S. rejected the claim, with President Trump insisting the waterway remained open . Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the strait would remain sealed "until further notice" .
The resulting uncertainty caused shipping traffic through the chokepoint to plummet. Daily ship traffic through the strait, which normally carries about a fifth of the world's oil, dropped to only 14 ships on Sunday, July 12, according to maritime data firm Kpler . Normally, more than 130 vessels pass through the waterway each day .
Trump also reimposed a U.S. naval blockade of Iran, announcing: "We are reinstating the Iranian blockade, so named because it is only stopping Iran's ships or customers from entering or leaving" .
On Monday, July 13, oil prices surged dramatically. Brent crude jumped 9.6% to $83.30 per barrel — its best single-day performance since May 2020 . West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 9.4% to settle at $78.14 . Shares of major oil companies also rose, while stock markets fell on fears of a wider regional conflict .
In the calm before the ceasefire broke, Brent crude had fallen back toward pre-war levels near $72. After the ceasefire collapse, prices surged past $78 on July 8 , then to $83-85 by July 13-14 .
The front-month Brent contract traded at an $8.92 premium over six-month deferred delivery, its largest premium since June 10, reflecting acute near-term supply scarcity fears .
The positioning levels echoed the earlier war-driven buying from March 2026. At the outset of the original U.S.-Iran conflict, hedge funds had turned most bullish on Brent since 2020, increasing net-long positions by 65,438 lots to 351,032 in the week ending March 10 . The July wave of buying was even more extreme in its velocity: net long positions surged by over 75,000 contracts in a single week, the largest weekly increase since 2016 .
As the crisis deepened, Iran threatened to retaliate against regional infrastructure, raising fears of a wider war that could disrupt energy facilities and shipping lanes across the Gulf . The U.S. and Iran traded fresh attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran expanding strikes on Gulf states following U.S. attacks .
The combination of a collapsed diplomatic track, a contested closure of the world's most critical oil chokepoint, and the prospect of a wider regional conflict created a supply-risk environment that hedge funds had not seen in nearly a decade — and they placed their biggest bets accordingly.
On July 8, President Donald Trump declared the interim ceasefire agreement with Iran "over," stating that the memorandum of understanding signed under Pakistani mediation was no longer in effect . Speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, Trump said, "To me, I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them" . Iran accused the U.S. of violating the peace agreement .
The same day, the U.S. military conducted a second round of strikes against Iranian positions in retaliation for the attacks on commercial vessels . CENTCOM announced it had hit more than 80 targets in Iran, including air-defense systems and boats belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps .
Brent crude jumped 5.2% to $78.02 per barrel as the market repriced the resumption of full conflict .
The U.S. conducted multiple consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian coastal targets. A third wave of strikes was reported by July 9, with operations continuing through at least six nights . Iran retaliated by expanding attacks on Gulf states . Air-raid sirens were activated in Bahrain and Kuwait as Iran launched retaliatory missile attacks .
Over the weekend of July 11-12, fresh U.S. airstrikes prompted Tehran to claim it had closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping . The U.S. rejected the claim, with President Trump insisting the waterway remained open . Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the strait would remain sealed "until further notice" .
The resulting uncertainty caused shipping traffic through the chokepoint to plummet. Daily ship traffic through the strait, which normally carries about a fifth of the world's oil, dropped to only 14 ships on Sunday, July 12, according to maritime data firm Kpler . Normally, more than 130 vessels pass through the waterway each day .
Trump also reimposed a U.S. naval blockade of Iran, announcing: "We are reinstating the Iranian blockade, so named because it is only stopping Iran's ships or customers from entering or leaving" .
On Monday, July 13, oil prices surged dramatically. Brent crude jumped 9.6% to $83.30 per barrel — its best single-day performance since May 2020 . West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 9.4% to settle at $78.14 . Shares of major oil companies also rose, while stock markets fell on fears of a wider regional conflict .
In the calm before the ceasefire broke, Brent crude had fallen back toward pre-war levels near $72. After the ceasefire collapse, prices surged past $78 on July 8 , then to $83-85 by July 13-14 .
The front-month Brent contract traded at an $8.92 premium over six-month deferred delivery, its largest premium since June 10, reflecting acute near-term supply scarcity fears .
The positioning levels echoed the earlier war-driven buying from March 2026. At the outset of the original U.S.-Iran conflict, hedge funds had turned most bullish on Brent since 2020, increasing net-long positions by 65,438 lots to 351,032 in the week ending March 10 . The July wave of buying was even more extreme in its velocity: net long positions surged by over 75,000 contracts in a single week, the largest weekly increase since 2016 .
As the crisis deepened, Iran threatened to retaliate against regional infrastructure, raising fears of a wider war that could disrupt energy facilities and shipping lanes across the Gulf . The U.S. and Iran traded fresh attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran expanding strikes on Gulf states following U.S. attacks .
The combination of a collapsed diplomatic track, a contested closure of the world's most critical oil chokepoint, and the prospect of a wider regional conflict created a supply-risk environment that hedge funds had not seen in nearly a decade — and they placed their biggest bets accordingly.