Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Tanker Traffic Collapses, Oil Surges, and Trump Reverses Toll Plan

Pre-war, about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products passed through the strait daily . Today, transits are roughly 90% below pre-war levels — an average of about 13 vessels per day .

What the IEA Has Said

IEA chief Fatih Birol welcomed the June 18 interim agreement and called for the "unconditional reopening" of the strait, warning it would take time to restore oil and gas flows to pre-war levels . In May 2026, Birol said the global energy crisis would not resolve until the strait reopens . The IEA warned in July 2026 that renewed fighting threatens to extend the global energy crisis .

Earlier, Birol called the situation "the biggest energy security threat in history" and said oil markets could enter a "red zone" by July if the strait remained blocked .

The 14 Million Barrels Per Day Disruption

The figure of 13–14 million bpd of potential oil supply loss originates from a Barclays estimate (March 26, 2026), not directly from the IEA . The EIA confirmed the closure "significantly disrupted global oil flows" . Separate reporting also cites the IEA stating the closure cut as much as 14 million bpd of crude flows, though the figure is attributed to multiple sources .

One claim — that world oil demand is on track to fall for the first time since 2020 — could not be directly sourced from the retrieved material. The available evidence shows severe supply disruption but does not clearly confirm that the IEA projected a year-on-year demand decline.

Oil Prices: Brent Above $85, Above $87

On March 3, 2026, Brent crude surged past $85 to a high of $85.12 . On July 14–15, 2026, amid the revived blockade and Trump's toll threat, Brent surged roughly 5% to trade at $87.25 a barrel . Earlier in the crisis, Brent fell back to $88 during an April ceasefire and to the high $70s after the June 18 MOU .

What About U.S. Navy Escort Requests?

A direct source for the U.S. Navy refusing commercial escort requests was not confirmed in the searches. Some reports noted Trump offered U.S. Navy escorts and insurance for tankers in early March , but no clear evidence of declining requests was found in the retrieved material.

Trump Scraps the 20% Transit Toll

On July 13, Trump announced a 20% fee on all Hormuz cargo as the U.S. reimposed a naval blockade . Within 24 hours, on July 14, he reversed course, saying: "Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals" . The New York Times described this as one of several "shifts that demonstrate his uncertain strategy" .

Bottom Line

The Strait of Hormuz remains the world's most consequential energy chokepoint. Traffic levels are a tenth of normal, prices are volatile, and the political and military situation remains fragile. For now, the crisis is unresolved, the IEA continues to urge unconditional reopening, and the market is pricing in sustained disruption.