How Ukraine's drone strikes crippled Russian refineries and triggered a fuel crisis

Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian oil refineries — which escalated dramatically from August 2025 onward — inflicted meaningful damage on refining infrastructure, triggered domestic fuel shortages, and forced Moscow to impose a cascade of export bans and import measures. However, Russia partially offset the output losses using spare refining capacity, preventing a total collapse in throughput.

Impact on refining output

The scale of the drone campaign was unprecedented. Ukraine launched at least 28 drone strikes on Russian oil refineries between August and October 2025 alone, compared to 21 in the entire first seven months of the year . By early 2026, the number of attacked refineries had effectively doubled compared to the same period in 2025 .

Capacity knocked offline. By September 2025, Reuters calculated that Ukrainian strikes had incapacitated roughly 3.3 million metric tons (4%) of Russia's total oil refining capacity . Other estimates suggested about 10% of refining capacity was knocked out at various points . The Moscow Times noted that while some outlets claimed 38% capacity loss, the real operational disruption was lower since Russia has 327 million tons/year of nameplate capacity — the 38% figure represents the total capacity of refineries that were attacked, not the capacity that was actually taken offline .

Throughput decline. Russian crude throughput slipped to about 5.1 million barrels per day in August 2025, then to roughly 4.9 million b/d in September — a drop of 300,000–500,000 b/d from forecast levels . For full-year 2025, domestic refining output fell 1.7% year-on-year to 262.3 million tons .

Offset effect. Russia used spare refinery capacity to limit the overall throughput decline to about 3% for 2025 as a whole, according to Reuters sources . The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that drone-hit suppression of refinery runs would persist at least until mid-2026 .

Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat and Afipsky refineries

Two refineries were particularly hard-hit and illustrate the strategic reach and cumulative damage of the campaign.

Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat (Bashkortostan). One of Russia's largest petrochemical and refining complexes, more than 1,300 km from Ukraine. It was hit by drones on September 18, 2025, setting the ELOU-AVT-4 crude distillation unit on fire . A second strike hit the same facility less than a week later on September 24, with sources reporting a "significant unit" engulfed in flames . It was struck again in July 2026, with Ukraine's Special Operations Forces reporting that the critical AVT-6 primary oil distillation unit was hit .

Afipsky Refinery (Krasnodar region). A southern Russian refinery that supplies fuel to the Russian military . It was hit repeatedly — at least six documented drone-caused fires between August 2025 and June 2026 . Each time, local authorities reported fires were extinguished, with some equipment damage . The cumulative effect contributed to regional fuel shortages . Ukrainian officials described the Afipsky refinery as a priority target because of its role in supplying Russian occupying forces .

Domestic fuel supplies

Fuel shortages materialized. BBC Verify and BBC Russian reported that by October 2025, approximately 21 of Russia's 38 major refineries had been hit, leading to fuel shortages and price hikes in multiple Russian regions .

Paradoxical export surge. The reduction in domestic refining capacity meant Russia had more unrefined crude available for export. Russia boosted crude oil exports from western ports to nearly 2 million b/d in August 2025, about 200,000 b/d above earlier projections . Bloomberg described this as "Ukraine's drone strikes driving a Russian oil export surge" .

Crisis acknowledged. By June 2026, Russia's government acknowledged for the first time that air attacks had led to "temporary complications in supplies" . Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak admitted crude output was falling as refineries underwent unscheduled repairs . By July 2026, the crisis affected an estimated 50 million people, approximately 35% of the Russian population, with Crimea declaring a state of emergency and banning fuel sales .

Government policy responses

Moscow introduced a layered set of fuel export restrictions and import measures in direct response to the drone-driven supply crunch:

Measure	Date	Details
Gasoline export ban extended	August 2025 (announced)	Extended from end of August through September for fuel producers, citing drone disruptions .
Diesel export ban (partial)	September 25, 2025	Banned diesel exports for resellers (non-producers) through end of 2025 .
Diesel export ban (full)	July 8, 2026	Full ban on diesel exports until July 31, 2026. Novak said Russia would also begin importing fuel .
Aviation fuel export ban	June 1, 2026	Prohibited aviation fuel exports until November 30, 2026, to stabilize the domestic market .
Fuel imports initiated	July 2026	Russia began importing petroleum products for the first time to supplement domestic supply .

Bottom line

The drone strikes have been strategically effective: they did not collapse Russia's overall refining throughput (which fell only about 3% in 2025 thanks to spare capacity ), but they repeatedly hit critical refineries, forced unscheduled maintenance, created localized fuel shortages and price spikes , and compelled Moscow to impose increasingly broad export bans on gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel — culminating in the unprecedented step of importing fuel in mid-2026 . The IEA expects the suppression of Russian refinery runs to persist into mid-2026 .