Houthi Threat to Close Bab al-Mandeb: $200 Oil, Sanaa Airport Strike, and the Dual-Strait Risk

The $200-a-Barrel Warning

Houthi officials have repeatedly and explicitly warned that closing both the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices to $200 per barrel:

• On July 13, 2026, Mohammed al-Farah, a member of the political bureau of Yemen's Ansarullah movement, said both straits could be closed "in an operational alliance" if Saudi Arabia continued targeting Yemen's critical infrastructure, warning oil could hit $200 a barrel .
• A senior Yemeni official told PressTV on the same day that the Houthi armed forces are prepared to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, sending oil prices soaring to $200, if Saudi Arabia persists in attacking Yemeni infrastructure .
• Mohammed Mansour, the Houthi deputy information minister, previously stated in late March 2026 that blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could bring oil to $200 per barrel, saying "Europe must not think that it will be spared the consequences" .

Strategic Importance of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is approximately 29 to 30 kilometers (16 nautical miles) wide at its narrowest point . It is the only entry point to the Red Sea from the Indian Ocean, connecting to the Suez Canal and facilitating trade between Asia and Europe .

The strait handled roughly 4.2 million barrels per day of oil in the first half of 2025, about 6% of all seaborne-traded oil . The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lists it as one of the world's most critical maritime oil chokepoints . Earlier EIA data noted that most Persian Gulf exports heading to the Suez Canal or SUMED Pipeline must pass through both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb consecutively .

After disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz (which normally handles approximately 20 million b/d), Saudi Arabia rerouted oil exports through its Red Sea port of Yanbu. This makes Bab al-Mandeb Saudi Arabia's last functioning oil export route — and therefore a high-value Houthi target . The East-West pipeline pumping at full capacity of 7 million barrels per day delivers Saudi crude to the Red Sea, but once at Yanbu, the oil must still transit the Bab al-Mandeb to reach global markets .

The Compounding Risk: Simultaneous Closure of Both Straits

Analysts warn that a simultaneous closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb would be catastrophic for global energy markets:

• A combined closure would block roughly 30% of global container shipping and threaten an estimated $10 billion/day in trade value .
• CNBC reported in June 2026 that President Trump is confronted with the threat that Iran might shut down the Bab el-Mandeb if Middle East tensions escalate, severely reducing oil supplies in an already disrupted market .
• Politico reported in March 2026 that should Iranian proxies close the Bab el-Mandeb, it could drive oil prices to $150 a barrel, and the compounding effect of a dual-strait closure would be far worse .
• Brent crude surged 3.7% past $116 in late March 2026 after the Houthis fired missiles at Israel and threatened closure, reflecting the market's acute sensitivity to Red Sea risks .
• Oil prices could exceed $200 per barrel under worst-case scenarios modeled by the Dallas Federal Reserve, with global GDP contracting by an estimated 2.5% in the first quarter alone .

Geopolitical Coordination Between the Houthis and Iran

The Houthis are explicitly described as Iran-backed and Iran-aligned, serving as a key proxy for Tehran's strategy of leveraging the Red Sea gateway . Key indicators of coordination:

• The Sanaa airport strike was reportedly intended to stop Iran from establishing a direct airlift to the Houthis, which experts said could funnel weapons to the group and break a de facto arms embargo .
• In prior weeks, the Houthis had threatened Saudi Arabia after confronting Saudi "warplanes" that allegedly attempted to block an Iranian civilian aircraft from landing at Sanaa .
• Iran's Revolutionary Guard also issued warnings in June 2026 about closing the Bab el-Mandeb if Israel did not cease military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, indicating the threat is coordinated between Tehran and its Houthi proxies .
• Saudi officials have called on the US to lift its blockade of Hormuz, fearing that US-Iran hostilities could provoke Iran to order the Houthis to shut Bab al-Mandeb, effectively trapping Saudi oil exports between two closed chokepoints .

What This Means for Global Energy Markets

The July 13–14, 2026 Sanaa airport airstrike broke the Houthi-Saudi truce and triggered immediate Houthi missile retaliation against Saudi airports. Houthi officials have now explicitly threatened to close Bab al-Mandeb — and potentially both straits simultaneously — warning of $200 oil. With approximately 4.2 million barrels per day of oil and roughly 30% of global container shipping at risk from a dual closure, the Red Sea chokepoint has become the central energy market risk as Iran uses the Houthis to apply pressure far from Hormuz . The market has already priced in significant risk: Brent crude traded above $110 a barrel by late March 2026, a roughly 50% increase since the start of the Iran war .