IEA Chief Fatih Birol Warns Europe's Electrification Has Stalled at 23% — and Why It Matters

The gap between renewable additions and grid infrastructure

Birol described Europe's aging and inadequate electricity grids as a critical bottleneck. In the 10 July 2026 interview, he called the obsolescence of European power grids "an economic crime" . He and EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen jointly argued that adding record levels of renewables means nothing if the grid cannot carry the power to consumers . Birol noted that 600 gigawatts of renewable projects — nearly seven times what Europe built in a year — have been abandoned for lack of grid capacity . An earlier Euronews report (December 2025) noted that 14 member states were still below their 2030 interconnection targets, and the Commission has since floated a €1.2 trillion grid-upgrade plan to address the gap .

Rejection of returning to Russian gas

Birol explicitly ruled out any return to Russian gas. In the same 10 July 2026 interview, he "excluded the hypothesis of returning to Russian gas" and stressed that the EU's long-term dependence on Moscow for energy is the root cause of today's high electricity prices . The French-language version of the interview quotes him saying that returning to Russian gas would be a grave error, and that the EU officially banning Russian gas imports from 2027 means Europe must not reverse course . In a separate May 2026 interview, he warned that easing sanctions on Russian energy would be a "major mistake" .

Electricity prices two to three times higher than gas

Birol and the IEA have repeatedly flagged that electricity in many EU countries remains two to three times more expensive than gas on a per-unit basis, which destroys the incentive for households and businesses to switch to heat pumps, electric vehicles, or electric industrial processes . A Euronews analysis of the EU's electrification strategy (9 July 2026) states bluntly: "electricity remains significantly more expensive than gas in most EU countries," and this price gap — combined with high upfront costs — is discouraging uptake . According to Eurostat, the average EU household electricity price stood at around €0.29 per kWh in early 2025, while household gas prices averaged just €0.11 per kWh — meaning electricity cost roughly two and a half times more per unit . The European Environment Agency confirmed that gas prices still drive wholesale electricity prices across the EU, making renewables the system's most effective shock absorber .

Broader warnings on urgency

Across multiple interviews, Birol has framed the current moment as a critical window. He called the energy crisis triggered by the Strait of Hormuz disruptions "the greatest threat to global energy security in history" , and told Euronews in Davos (January 2026) that "electrifying everything" is essential for Europe's prosperity and security . He argues that the region's economy and industrial competitiveness depend on a rapid shift from fossil fuels to clean electricity, and that waiting will only deepen dependency and raise costs.

COP31 president-designate Murat Kurum's global electrification target

Separately from Birol, Turkey's Environment Minister and COP31 President-Designate Murat Kurum has proposed a new global target for electrification. On 9 June 2026 at the UN June Climate Meetings in Bonn, Kurum announced a voluntary goal for electricity to meet 35% of the world's final energy demand by 2035 . The target is non-binding and not part of formal COP negotiation texts but is designed to rally international ambition. Kurum called electrification "a critical frontier of the transition" and noted that electricity currently accounts for only about 20% of global final energy consumption . Reuters reports the proposal has backing from several governments, partly driven by the energy security shock of the Iran conflict .

Summary

• Birol on stagnation: EU electrification stuck at ~23% for a decade; target is 32% by 2030 .
• Birol on grids: Aging, inadequate grids are a bottleneck he calls "an economic crime" .
• Birol on Russian gas: Totally rejects any return; calls it a "major mistake" .
• Birol on electricity vs gas prices: Two to three times more expensive in most EU countries, killing the switch incentive .
• Kurum (COP31): Proposed a voluntary global target of 35% electrification by 2035, up from ~20% today .