OMV and Shell Q2 2026 Trading Updates: Production, Prices, and the Conflict Impact

Revised guidance: OMV now expects total hydrocarbon production to be between 280 kboe/d and 290 kboe/d, down from a prior forecast of "slightly below 300 kboe/d" (2025: 305 kboe/d), subject to the timing and extent of lifting restrictions from the Middle East conflict . Production had already declined 7% in Q1 2026 to 288 kboe/d as a direct consequence of the conflict .

Earnings outlook: OMV expects higher energy prices to offset the negative impact on sales volumes from the Middle East conflict . Consensus EBIT and net income estimates for Q2 stand at €1,505 million, and analysts see a potential upgrade of about 5–6% based on the trading update . The company expects improvements in nearly all business segments .

Shell: Gas Trading Profits Bounce Back as Production Drops

Shell guided Integrated Gas production at 610–650 kboe/d in Q2 2026, down sharply from 909 kboe/d in Q1 2026, reflecting the impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatari volumes . However, this was an upward revision from the previous guidance range of 580–640 kboe/d . LNG liquefaction volumes are expected at 7.4–7.8 million tonnes (Q1: 7.9 MT), also revised up from a prior range of 6.8–7.4 MT .

Shell raised its Q2 integrated gas production and LNG liquefaction outlooks on July 7, sending shares up more than 2% in London trading . Upstream production was guided at 1,750–1,850 kboe/d. Refining margins were forecast at $20/bbl, significantly higher than Q1 .

Shell said integrated gas trading results are expected to be "significantly stronger" than Q1 2026, helping offset the production drop from Qatar . Marketing adjusted earnings are expected to be in line with Q1 2026 . The company forecast a $1–$6 billion working capital inflow in Q2 (versus an $11.2 billion outflow in Q1) . Full Q2 results are scheduled for July 30, 2026 .

Broader Impact on Gulf Earnings and Regional Markets

Unequal toll of the Iran conflict: Gulf energy companies face a stark split — price gains from the conflict have helped offset supply disruption, but the toll has been highly unequal across sectors and countries . Energy producers benefited from the price volatility caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz shipping channel, while non-energy sectors faced severe disruption .

Oil and gas earnings expected to remain strong as elevated crude and gas prices boost top-line revenues for Gulf national oil companies, even as some production and export capacity remains constrained . Analysts estimate a geopolitical premium of $5–$20/bbl embedded in 2026 oil prices due to the conflict . HSBC estimates Q2 2026 average Brent prices at $114/bbl .

Gulf stock markets mixed: Major Gulf bourses were mixed in early July as investors weighed upcoming corporate earnings, softer oil prices, and renewed U.S.–Iran tensions . Saudi Arabia lowered the August official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia by $11 a barrel, signaling caution about demand . Gulf shares had rallied in late May on Iran deal hopes and firmer oil prices , but the trajectory remains volatile as ceasefire negotiations progress and regress.

Key structural disruption: Drone strikes have hit Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, and attacks forced Qatar to suspend LNG production at times during the conflict . This physical damage to Gulf energy infrastructure directly reduced Shell's and OMV's available volumes from the region and will weigh on Q2 earnings for QatarEnergy and Saudi Aramco when they report.

Bottom line: Q2 2026 was a tale of two forces — sharply elevated commodity prices (natural gas +21.5% for OMV; Brent crude spiking toward $120/bbl earlier in the quarter before retreating) offsetting significant physical supply disruption from the Middle East conflict. Shell managed the tension by raising its production guidance and flagging bumper gas trading profits. OMV leaned on price gains to offset volume losses. Gulf markets remained caught between strong energy sector earnings tailwinds and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.