Macro Backdrop: US Jobs & Eurozone Inflation

• US jobs: The June US payrolls report showed only 57,000 jobs added — well below the 110,000 consensus — and prior two months were revised down by 74,000. This sharply reduced expectations of a Fed rate hike, with CME FedWatch showing a 75.6% probability the Fed would hold at its July meeting .
• Eurozone inflation: Eurozone CPI cooled more than expected in June, falling to 2.8%, helped by oil prices dropping to pre-war levels .

ECB Rate Decision

• Contrary to market expectations of cuts, the ECB raised rates by 25 basis points on June 11, 2026 — the first hike since 2023 — bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, citing sticky services inflation and a resilient economy . A December 2025 Reuters poll had shown a majority of economists expected rates to stay on hold through end-2026 .

Technology Stocks

• Technology shares were a key driver, supported by renewed AI optimism. The STOXX 600's quarterly gain was the biggest in over five years, with tech leading the charge .

Sector Rotation into Financials and Industrials

• On July 3, the STOXX 600 record was "underpinned by gains in cyclical stocks," including industrials like Siemens, as investors pushed back expectations of an imminent US rate hike . February records were also supported by banking and defense sector advances .

Defense Stocks

• Defense stocks contributed to earlier Q2 records. On February 18, the STOXX 600 reached an all-time high as defense and banking sectors advanced .

Preliminary US-Iran Truce

• On June 15, the STOXX 600 hit a record high "following a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran to conclude their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz" . This de-escalation removed a major geopolitical risk and energy supply worry.

Analyst Target Upgrades

• Note: Separate search queries for JPMorgan and Barclays raising STOXX 600 targets exceeded the search budget, so direct source verification is unavailable for those specific analyst calls. However, the broader context of a multi-year bull run — with the STOXX 600 posting eight straight monthly gains through February — is confirmed.

easyJet's £5.5 Billion Castlelake Takeover

• After rejecting several bids (including a £4.7bn and a £6.50/share proposal) , easyJet's board agreed in principle on July 5 to a sweetened £6.90/share takeover from Castlelake valuing the carrier at £5.5 billion ($7.34 billion) .
• EasyJet shares surged 10% on the news, hitting four-year highs, though analysts flagged EU ownership rule hurdles and the need for shareholder approval .

Individual Stock Moves (Not directly sourced)

• Sodexo raising revenue forecast, Bayer consolidating Roundup, SKF joint venture, and Nordea beating profit estimates — the search budget was reached before separate queries could verify these specific stock moves. These claims cannot be confirmed with the current evidence set.

Key caveats:

• The specific claims about Sodexo, Bayer, SKF, and Nordea are unverified in this search run. They may be accurate but lack direct sourced confirmation here.
• The ECB actually raised rates in June rather than cutting them, which may surprise readers accustomed to a rate-cut narrative. The dovish macro catalyst instead came from the US jobs miss delaying the Fed and from falling eurozone inflation.

Macro Backdrop: US Jobs & Eurozone Inflation

• US jobs: The June US payrolls report showed only 57,000 jobs added — well below the 110,000 consensus — and prior two months were revised down by 74,000. This sharply reduced expectations of a Fed rate hike, with CME FedWatch showing a 75.6% probability the Fed would hold at its July meeting .
• Eurozone inflation: Eurozone CPI cooled more than expected in June, falling to 2.8%, helped by oil prices dropping to pre-war levels .

ECB Rate Decision

• Contrary to market expectations of cuts, the ECB raised rates by 25 basis points on June 11, 2026 — the first hike since 2023 — bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, citing sticky services inflation and a resilient economy . A December 2025 Reuters poll had shown a majority of economists expected rates to stay on hold through end-2026 .

Technology Stocks

• Technology shares were a key driver, supported by renewed AI optimism. The STOXX 600's quarterly gain was the biggest in over five years, with tech leading the charge .

Sector Rotation into Financials and Industrials

• On July 3, the STOXX 600 record was "underpinned by gains in cyclical stocks," including industrials like Siemens, as investors pushed back expectations of an imminent US rate hike . February records were also supported by banking and defense sector advances .

Defense Stocks

• Defense stocks contributed to earlier Q2 records. On February 18, the STOXX 600 reached an all-time high as defense and banking sectors advanced .

Preliminary US-Iran Truce

• On June 15, the STOXX 600 hit a record high "following a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran to conclude their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz" . This de-escalation removed a major geopolitical risk and energy supply worry.

Analyst Target Upgrades

• Note: Separate search queries for JPMorgan and Barclays raising STOXX 600 targets exceeded the search budget, so direct source verification is unavailable for those specific analyst calls. However, the broader context of a multi-year bull run — with the STOXX 600 posting eight straight monthly gains through February — is confirmed.

easyJet's £5.5 Billion Castlelake Takeover

• After rejecting several bids (including a £4.7bn and a £6.50/share proposal) , easyJet's board agreed in principle on July 5 to a sweetened £6.90/share takeover from Castlelake valuing the carrier at £5.5 billion ($7.34 billion) .
• EasyJet shares surged 10% on the news, hitting four-year highs, though analysts flagged EU ownership rule hurdles and the need for shareholder approval .

Individual Stock Moves (Not directly sourced)

• Sodexo raising revenue forecast, Bayer consolidating Roundup, SKF joint venture, and Nordea beating profit estimates — the search budget was reached before separate queries could verify these specific stock moves. These claims cannot be confirmed with the current evidence set.

Key caveats:

• The specific claims about Sodexo, Bayer, SKF, and Nordea are unverified in this search run. They may be accurate but lack direct sourced confirmation here.
• The ECB actually raised rates in June rather than cutting them, which may surprise readers accustomed to a rate-cut narrative. The dovish macro catalyst instead came from the US jobs miss delaying the Fed and from falling eurozone inflation.