Zelenskyy Declares the War Has Entered a Decisive 'Battle in the Sky' — and Drone Strikes Are Reshaping the Conflict

Pressure on Russian air defenses: By summer 2025, Ukraine's escalating drone offensive was stretching Moscow's air defense systems to their limits, forcing Russia to redeploy assets to protect critical infrastructure far from the front lines .

Russian escalation in response: Russia launched its largest air assault of the war in June 2025 — 479 drones and 20 missiles in a single night — demonstrating how the aerial domain has become the central axis of combat .

Military Degradation: Crippling Russia's War Machine

The drone campaign is designed to degrade Russia's ability to sustain its invasion:

Energy infrastructure as a target: Ukraine has systematically targeted Russian oil refineries, fuel storage facilities, pumping stations, and even tankers from Russia's "shadow fleet" . The stated goal is to cripple fuel supplies to the Russian military while also diminishing Russia's oil export revenue .

Quantified impact: Some assessments estimate that Ukrainian drone attacks have knocked out roughly 38% of Russia's oil refining capacity — calculated as the capacity of 16 affected refineries out of Russia's total annual capacity of 327 million tons. Analysts caution that Russia's ability to adapt and repair partially mitigates the damage . In September 2025, the campaign had escalated to the point of causing fuel shortages across Russia and choking off oil exports .

Attacking launch platforms: The strikes on Russian military airfields are specifically intended to hinder Moscow's ability to conduct aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, targeting the launch points of glide bombs and missiles .

Negotiating Leverage: Pressuring the Kremlin

The aerial campaign is explicitly linked to Ukraine's diplomatic strategy:

Raising the cost of war: By imposing real economic pain — domestic fuel shortages, reduced export revenue, and stretched defenses — Ukraine aims to make continued war more expensive for the Kremlin than a negotiated settlement . Military experts describe these strikes as both tactical blows and "symbolic maneuvers" that showcase Kyiv's ability to escalate costs .

Leverage for talks: Forbes reported in December 2025 that Ukraine's increase in deep drone strikes was directly aimed at gaining leverage for peace talks, with the strikes providing Kyiv some of its first tangible victories in years . The strikes create a situation where Russia cannot simply wait out Ukraine's conventional ground forces, since the aerial threat operates on a different geography and timeline.

Zelenskyy's negotiating posture: In his December 2025 New Year's address, Zelenskyy reinforced this position by stating he would not sign a "feeble" peace deal that would only prolong the war — a stance backed by the coercive power of the drone campaign .

Key Takeaways

• Zelenskyy has declared air superiority the decisive domain of the war, calling it the "battle in the sky"
• Ukraine claimed nearly 820,000 drone strikes eliminated Russian targets in 2025, making drone forces the dominant military branch
• Deep strikes have hit oil refineries across Russia, estimated to have knocked out up to 38% of refining capacity
• The campaign serves dual purposes: military degradation of Russia's fuel supply and air capabilities, and creating economic pressure for negotiating leverage
• Russia has responded with record aerial assaults of its own, confirming the skies as the central battleground