NATO’s Ankara Summit 2026: How Turkey Became the Alliance’s Indispensable Defense Powerhouse

Turkey's defense industry surge

The numbers tell the story of a transformed sector. Turkish defense and aerospace exports exceeded $11 billion on a 12-month rolling basis in June 2026, up from about $2.3 billion in 2020 . Exports to NATO members specifically surged 47.1% to $6.2 billion, accounting for 57.3% of total sector exports—underscoring Turkey's growing role as a supplier rather than just a buyer within the alliance . Europe was the largest single regional recipient of Turkish defense exports in 2025, at $4.3 billion . The sector now accounts for approximately 3.7% of Turkey's total exports, up from 1.7% in 2022 .

GE F110 engines for the KAAN fighter

The Trump administration formally notified Congress on June 24, 2026, of its intent to approve the sale of dozens of GE F110 turbofan engines valued at over $700 million to power Turkey's indigenous fifth-generation KAAN fighter . Reuters reported that the administration was pushing ahead despite objections from some members of Congress over Turkey's continued possession of the Russian S-400 air defense system, clearing the single biggest technical hurdle facing the KAAN program . Under a contract signed in May 2026 at the SAHA expo, Turkey initially acquired a batch of 20 Block 10 aircraft, with deliveries of the first KAAN fighters planned by 2030 .

Possible F-35 re-entry

Erdoğan has repeatedly called for Turkey's return to the F-35 program—from which it was expelled in 2019 after acquiring the S-400—arguing it would strengthen NATO security . Trump signaled a possible easing of tensions on defense technology, and the F-35 issue is expected to be discussed during his bilateral meeting with Erdoğan on the summit sidelines . Vice President JD Vance said Pentagon officials were reviewing whether Turkey had met the U.S.'s long-standing conditions . As of summit eve, no formal re-entry deal has been confirmed, and analysts remain skeptical that the long-running dispute can be fully resolved this week .

France's softened stance on the SAMP/T

For years, France blocked the sale of the Franco-Italian SAMP/T air defense system to Turkey. Multiple sources now report that President Macron has instructed his government to reassess joint production of the SAMP/T with Turkey, following talks with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on June 25 . The shift in position was confirmed by five sources familiar with the matter: "Before, there was a clear lack of openness; now there is openness," one source told Reuters . Erdoğan wants progress on this deal at the summit, but negotiations remain at an early stage and technology-transfer hurdles—particularly around ASTER 30 missiles—have not been resolved .

The Erdoğan–Trump dynamic and U.S. posture

Trump's visit to Ankara is his first to Turkey as president and the first U.S. presidential visit to the country since 2015 . It comes amid a broader U.S. recalibration of its European force posture, which Washington sees as a catalyst for allies to spend more . Turkish officials have publicly downplayed concerns about a U.S. withdrawal from NATO, framing the summit as an opportunity to demonstrate allied unity and Turkey's indispensable role in European and Middle Eastern security . Trump's administration also views the engine sale as a gesture of alliance solidarity, with formal notification landing just days before the summit .

What to watch

The Ankara summit will test whether Turkey can translate its defense-industrial momentum into lasting alliance leverage. The unanswered questions remain significant: Can France and Turkey bridge remaining technology-transfer gaps on the SAMP/T? Will the F-35 dispute find any path forward while the S-400 remains on Turkish soil? And can the broader NATO agenda—burden-sharing, Ukraine support, and deterrence—hold together under the pressure of Trump's demands? The summit's outcomes will shape not just Turkey's role in the alliance, but the cohesion of NATO itself.