Samsung's Q2 2026 Profit Forecast: What You Need to Know

Samsung Electronics is on the verge of announcing what could be the most profitable quarter in the history of any South Korean company. When it releases its preliminary earnings guidance for the April–June period around July 7, 2026, brokerages forecast another record-shattering performance, overwhelmingly powered by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom rolling through the semiconductor industry .

The Record Number: ~86–87 Trillion Won

The consensus estimate compiled by financial data provider FnGuide from more than 15 securities firms points to a second-quarter operating profit of roughly 86 to 87 trillion won (approximately $60–$62 billion) on revenue of about 170 trillion won (~$120–$123 billion) .

This would handily eclipse Samsung's own record of 57.2 trillion won in operating profit reported just a quarter earlier, for January–March 2026 . Some individual analysts had previously set expectations as high as 100 trillion won for Q2, but several brokerages including Kiwoom Securities have since lowered their estimates due to larger-than-expected employee incentive provisions .

The reported operating profit figure itself is remarkable, but analysts emphasize that the "core" profit power of the memory business is even stronger. One analysis suggests that adding back catch-up bonus accruals of 15–17 trillion won would imply a core operating profit of roughly 104–106 trillion won .

How Samsung Compares: Nvidia, Apple, and Saudi Aramco

For context, in the first quarter of 2026, Samsung's $38 billion operating profit placed it third globally among listed companies, behind Apple ($50.85 billion) and Nvidia, when excluding Saudi Aramco . While precise peer data for Q2 2026 is not yet fully published, the available evidence suggests Samsung's projected $60–62 billion operating profit could vault it into second place, potentially ahead of both Apple and Nvidia for the quarter, and behind only Saudi Aramco .

Company	Approx. Quarterly Operating Profit (Q2 2026)	Notes
Samsung (forecast)	~$60–62B (~86–87T won)	Record-high, driven by memory
Nvidia	~$58B+ (GAAP net income)	Nvidia's revenue hit $81.6B in a recent quarter
Apple	Widely expected ~$30–35B range	Typically lower than Samsung on operating profit in this cycle
Saudi Aramco	Very large but no precise Q2 2026 figure in sources	Historic quarterly profit ~$50B+ range

Important caveat: Comparisons are complicated by differing fiscal calendars and reporting metrics. Samsung's $60–62 billion figure is an operating profit forecast, while some peers report net income or use different GAAP measures. Exact rankings will only be clear once all companies report.

Four Key Drivers Behind the Record Profit

1. AI-Fueled Memory Chip Dominance (the primary engine)

Samsung's Device Solutions (DS) division, which houses its memory chip business, is the overwhelming profit engine. In Q1 2026, the DS division contributed an estimated 53.7 trillion won — roughly 93.8% of total operating profit — with a stunning 65.7% operating margin that briefly topped even Nvidia's .

For Q2 2026, DRAM and NAND prices continue to surge. Analysts at Mirae Asset Securities estimate NAND average selling prices (ASP) will grow 60% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, driven by AI-driven demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and a structural tightening of memory supply . The phenomenon has been described as an "unprecedented supercycle" by Samsung itself and industry analysts .

2. Employee Bonus Provisions (a moderating factor)

The record profit is not without significant costs. Samsung's union wage settlement — which narrowly pulled the company back from a potential strike — triggered a massive, one-time performance-based incentive provision . Estimates of the impact vary:

• Reports suggest the provision will reduce Q2 operating profit by an estimated 11 trillion won or more .
• Nomura Securities, however, has noted these provisions may be "lower than expected," creating potential for an upside surprise in the final reported number .

One analyst summarized the situation: "The correct reading is not 'earnings fell from the KRW 100 trillion expectation to KRW 89 trillion.' It is closer to 'the memory core business reached more than KRW 100 trillion of profit power, but Samsung is recognizing excess-profit sharing costs in 2Q'" .

3. Consumer Promotions and the MX Division

Samsung's Mobile eXperience (MX) division, while still profitable (estimated ~3.4 trillion won in Q1), faces higher marketing costs and is expected to be a modest drag on overall profitability compared to the semiconductor windfall . Management guided for a seasonal decline in MX revenue and profitability due to rising component costs and promotional spending to defend market share .

4. The Overarching AI Supercycle

The single thread tying everything together is the AI-driven semiconductor supercycle. Big tech companies' massive investments in AI infrastructure have created a structural memory shortage. This "big tech premium" has pushed DRAM and NAND contract prices well above historical trends, with commodity DRAM prices rising by an estimated 55% and NAND by 72% quarter-on-quarter .

What to Watch For

Samsung will likely release its preliminary Q2 2026 earnings guidance on or around July 7, 2026, with the full earnings report following on July 23 . The key numbers to watch will be:

• Reported operating profit: Will it land at the consensus ~86–87 trillion won, or be squeezed further by bonus provisions?
• Core operating profit: Analysts will focus on profit before the one-time bonus costs, which paints a clearer picture of the underlying AI-driven earnings power.
• Guidance for H2 2026: Management commentary on continued demand and pricing trends will be critical for the stock's trajectory.

In summary, Samsung is expected to announce an operating profit of roughly 86–87 trillion won (~$60–62 billion) for Q2 2026. This would be the largest quarterly profit in the company's history and position it among the second- or third-most profitable companies globally for the quarter, behind only Saudi Aramco and potentially Nvidia. The profit is overwhelmingly a story of AI-fueled memory chip pricing, partially offset by large, one-off employee bonus provisions.