Gulf Oil Exports Surge in June 2025: Record UAE Shipments, Market Glut, and Strait of Hormuz Risks

June 2025 was a month of whiplash for global oil markets. Gulf crude exports staged a dramatic recovery, climbing by more than 3 million barrels per day (bpd) from May to exceed 10 million bpd, ship-tracking data show . The rebound was spearheaded by the United Arab Emirates, which posted its highest monthly export figure on record. But the surge in supply quickly reshaped the market's structure, pushing Brent futures into contango and dragging prices back toward pre-war levels. Meanwhile, the diplomatic architecture meant to secure those flows—a U.S.-Iran interim ceasefire—showed early signs of fracture, with new strikes and threats keeping the Strait of Hormuz a high-risk chokepoint. Here is a breakdown of the three defining stories of the month.

Record UAE Exports Lead a Gulf-Wide Recovery

The headline number: Gulf crude exports jumped more than 3 million bpd from May to more than 10 million bpd in June . The UAE accounted for the lion's share of that increase.

Independent ship-tracking firms Kpler, Vortexa, and LSEG reported that the UAE exported between 3.7 million and 3.8 million bpd of crude and condensate in June, its highest monthly level on record . That is more than 1 million bpd higher than May . Abu Dhabi crude loadings exceeded pre-war local loading levels, buoyed by ADNOC's issuance of multiple sale tenders for June through August loading and the drawdown of inventories .

The record came shortly after the UAE's exit from OPEC, a move that gave Abu Dhabi full freedom to maximize output and seek market share . The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that by early June—even before the interim deal with Iran—UAE oil exports had already rebounded to nearly 85% of pre-war levels, rising from about 1.9 million bpd in March to 4.3 million bpd in June .

Yet the overall Gulf recovery remained incomplete. Despite the month's surge, total Gulf export volumes in June were still roughly 40% below pre-conflict levels , well short of the 16.5 million bpd shipped before the crisis .

Other producers also ramped up in June. Saudi Arabia led a surge among OPEC stalwarts, with Saudi, UAE, and Kuwaiti seaborne exports reaching 11.9 million bpd—the highest since April 2023 . Kuwait's output rose sharply to 1.65 million bpd in June from 580,000 bpd in May . A Reuters survey pegged the overall OPEC output increase at 3.3 million bpd month-on-month, the biggest single-month jump from the group during the recovery .

Market Flip: From Backwardation to Contango

The flood of resumed Gulf exports triggered a significant shift in the oil market structure by late June.

In May, the Brent futures curve had displayed a rare "smile" configuration—tight in the prompt months, but signaling expected loosening further out—a pattern Morgan Stanley noted was last seen briefly in February 2020 . By late June, the surge in actual flows turned that expectation into visible oversupply.

On June 25, the front-month Brent structure flipped into contango—where prompt prices trade below later contracts—for the first time since the war began . August Brent futures slid to around $73 a barrel, their lowest since February 27 . The discount of prompt Brent to the six-month contract widened, and traders and LSEG data indicated that physical crude markets in Europe and Africa were reflecting oversupply fears .

Analysts described the situation as a short-term glut, though many noted that returning demand and a slow normalization of flows could tighten the market again by 2026 . OPEC+ accelerated the unwinding of its voluntary cuts in May and June, injecting nearly 1 million bpd of supply and contributing to the rapid loosening . The forward curve's shift into contango signaled that markets now expected ample supply and limited near-term price upside .

Strait of Hormuz: A Ceasefire Under Pressure

The U.S.-Iran interim ceasefire, signed on June 17, was designed to end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and create a 60-day window for broader negotiations . But barely two weeks later, the agreement was already facing its most serious test.

Article 5 of the memorandum of understanding—the clause governing the reopening and management of the Strait—became a flashpoint . On June 27, a drone attack struck a Singapore-registered cargo ship transiting the strait. The U.S. retaliated with strikes on Iranian missile and drone installations, and Iran launched missiles and drones at U.S. sites in Kuwait and Bahrain . The exchange was described as the most serious test of the ceasefire to date .

Analysts noted that Iran was using its newly acquired capability to intermittently obstruct Hormuz traffic as leverage in talks, even as both sides publicly said they wanted to end the conflict . The New York Times reported that "Iran's newly acquired capability to obstruct traffic in this crucial maritime route, vital to the global economy, provides it with essential leverage that it cannot afford to forfeit" .

Commercial shipping was gradually returning to the strait by early July, but the waterway was still "operating well below normal levels" as security concerns kept many shipping companies on edge . The UN International Maritime Organization escort mission was suspended after the June 27 attack . While the ceasefire had not collapsed entirely, it was clearly fragile, and the Strait of Hormuz remained the world's most volatile oil chokepoint.