Nomura Raises TSMC Price Target to NT$3,425 as AI Infrastructure Cycle 'Has Not Yet Peaked'

This update is part of a sustained pattern of upgrades from Nomura. The firm has steadily raised its TSMC target over the past year:

• May 2025: NT$1,170
• October 2025: NT$1,855
• January 2026: NT$2,135
• January 2026 (post-Q4 earnings): NT$2,280
• Before this report: NT$2,820
• June 30, 2026: NT$3,425

Each step was justified by rising AI demand visibility and CoWoS capacity tightness.

Mizuho's CoWoS Capacity Forecasts: 140k by 2026, 200k by 2027

Mizuho Securities Asia raised its monthly CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) packaging capacity estimates for TSMC:

• 2026: 140,000 units per month (up from prior estimate of 120,000)
• 2027: 190,000–200,000 units per month (up from prior estimate of 170,000–180,000)

The driver behind the revision is a "sharply upgraded outlook for AI-driven server CPU demand," particularly from server CPU and GPU clients . Mizuho did not report a specific new TSMC price target in the same note but has been raising targets across the semiconductor supply chain in recent months, including for Applied Materials, Micron, STMicroelectronics, and Texas Instruments .

How These Updates Compare With the Broader Analyst Consensus

TSMC carries a consensus "Buy" rating from 16 brokerages, with 12 Buys and 2 Strong Buys. The average 1-year price target on TSMC's ADR is about $449.38 . Recent analyst actions paint a picture of broad optimism, but Nomura's new target stands out:

• Nomura: NT$3,425 — the highest publicly reported target among recent updates
• Citi (March 2026): Called an "AI megacycle," projecting N2 node to become TSMC's largest revenue contributor ever by 2027
• Goldman Sachs (January 2026): Raised target to NT$2,330, citing capacity tightness and robust AI demand
• BofA (January 2026): Raised target to NT$2,150 ; raised further to NT$2,360 in April 2026
• J.P. Morgan (January 2026): Set target at NT$2,100

Nomura's NT$3,425 target is significantly above the peer range of roughly NT$2,100–$2,400 and implies a valuation premium well above what most other analysts are using .

How This Aligns With TSMC's Own Financial Results

TSMC's own performance and guidance provide the fundamental backbone for these aggressive analyst upgrades.

• 2025 Results: TSMC raised its 2025 revenue growth guidance to approximately 30% in USD terms in July 2025, up from mid-20% previously . Q3 2025 profit hit a record .
• 2026 Guidance (April 2026): TSMC guided >30% revenue growth for 2026 and announced 2026 capex of $52–$56 billion, up sharply from prior year . Q1 2026 revenue was approximately $35.9 billion, up 35% year-over-year, with gross margin reaching 62.3% .
• Capacity Signals: TSMC is converting N5 capacity to N3 and expanding Arizona fabs. CoWoS monthly capacity industry estimates ran at roughly 75,000–80,000 wafers by end-2025, with a company target of 120,000–130,000 by end-2026 . Mizuho's new 140,000 figure sits above this commonly cited company target, reflecting an even more aggressive demand view .
• HPC Dominance: High-performance computing (which includes AI accelerators) accounted for 61% of TSMC's revenue in Q1 2026, up from 46% in Q1 2024 .

On the Q3 2025 earnings call, TSMC CEO C.C. Wei stated that AI-related capacity is falling "about three times short" of demand . That supply-demand gap continues to drive analyst upgrades.

What This Means for Investors

Nomura's NT$3,425 target and Mizuho's upgraded CoWoS view represent some of the most aggressive analyst takes on TSMC. Both reflect a conviction that the AI capex cycle still has room to run — a view supported by TSMC's own record revenue, >30% growth trajectory, and $52–$56B capex plan. However, Nomura's target now notably exceeds the consensus range and implies a premium valuation multiple well above what most peers are using. Investors should weigh the upside potential against the risk that these estimates already price in a near-perfect demand scenario.