What the Recovery of Oil Flows Through the Strait of Hormuz Really Reveals About US-Iran Relations

The Independent Data Tells a Slower Story

However, independent ship-tracking data shows a much more measured recovery. Kpler data cited by CNBC on June 24 put confirmed oil shipments at around 4.8 million barrels per day — the highest since the war began on February 28, but still well below the pre-war baseline of roughly 15–20 million bpd . Goldman Sachs projected flows would recover to only about 70% of pre-war levels . Morgan Stanley estimated that roughly 11 million barrels per day of Gulf crude remained offline in early June .

The discrepancy between official US figures and independent trackers likely reflects that Vance's numbers include total crude volume in intermittent surges — clearing a backlog of 35 million barrels of tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf — rather than sustained daily throughput . The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said it did not expect full recovery until early 2027 .

The 60-Day Clock: Iran's Fee-Free Window and the Toll Dispute

The MoU established a 60-day period during which commercial vessels can transit the strait without paying fees, aligning with the negotiation window for a final deal . Iran's Supreme National Security Council announced on June 18 that "no fees will be imposed on vessels applying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the next 60 days," with all costs borne by the Iranian government .

But Iran made clear this is temporary. Iranian state media (Fars News Agency) claimed on June 15 that the deal included "U.S. acceptance, for the first time, of Iran's right to collect fees for maritime services" after the 60-day period expires . Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf confirmed that toll-free passage is "allowed only for 60 days" and that Iran will charge for "security, navigation, environmental, and insurance services" jointly with Oman .

The US position, as of available reporting, is that the strait is an international waterway under UNCLOS and customary international law, where Iran has no legal basis to charge tolls. The dispute is expected to be a central issue in the ongoing talks.

Iran's Exports and Revenue

Iranian crude exports via Hormuz surged to the highest since the war began by June 22, with three US-sanctioned supertankers (Elva, Virgo, Vigor) carrying about 6 million barrels . The IEA noted that "Iranian oil exports can fully resume once the U.S. blockade is lifted" . By early July, Iran claimed it was selling oil at a 20% premium and had exported 40 million barrels since the deal . The widely cited figure of 50 million barrels exported generating roughly $3.5 billion in revenue was not directly corroborated in top-tier sources retrieved for this analysis.

Switzerland Talks and the Mid-August Deadline

Indirect talks are ongoing in conjunction with the 60-day window. Vice President JD Vance traveled to Switzerland for peace talks in late June . The MoU commits both sides to negotiate a "final deal" within two months, with the UN to endorse a binding resolution . The 60-day free-passage period runs from mid-June, placing the deadline around mid-August.

The core dispute — whether Iran has any legitimate claim to charge vessels for passage through what the US considers an international strait — remains unresolved and is expected to be a central issue in the Switzerland talks .

Bottom-Line Assessment

The recovery in oil flows reveals a fragile, transactional truce rather than a resolved relationship. Both sides are using the 60-day window to maximize leverage: the US points to restored flows as proof the blockade is broken and Iranian threats are neutralized, while Iran signals that free passage is temporary and that it plans to monetize the chokepoint. The mid-August deadline for a final deal — encompassing nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and the governance of the strait — will determine whether this détente holds or collapses back into confrontation.