Shell's LNG Outlook 2026: Strait of Hormuz Crisis Stalls Global Trade, But Long-Term Demand Seen Rising 65% by 2050

Asian Spot Price Surge to Above $20/MMBtu

Asian spot LNG prices surged from pre-crisis levels around $10/MMBtu to above $20/MMBtu. By early March 2026, the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) hit around $23.80/MMBtu—a three-year high—before easing slightly on a U.S. plan to secure Hormuz transit . Shell's own Outlook notes the crisis pushed Asian spot prices above $20/MMBtu . The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that by late April, the JKM had risen 51% from pre-closure levels to $16.02/MMBtu, while the European TTF benchmark rose 35% to $14.80/MMBtu .

Rebound Potential in 2027

Shell expects growth to resume in 2027 if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal . The Outlook frames this as a conditional recovery: trade stalls in 2026, then growth resumes the following year . The central caveat is "if flows return to normal this summer" . A senior Shell executive, Cedric Cremers, also expressed concern in March 2026 that the conflict could impact long-term confidence in LNG supply reliability, even if current volumes are sufficient .

~180 Million Tonnes/Year of New Supply by 2030

Shell forecasts that about 180 million tonnes per year of new LNG supply will enter the market by 2030, improving availability and affordability and opening demand in new markets . This wave is led by projects in Qatar and the United States, with the U.S. extending its lead as the world's largest LNG exporter . Previous Shell outlooks had also highlighted the U.S. potentially reaching 180 million tonnes a year by 2030, accounting for a third of global supply .

Long-Term Demand: ~65% Rise to ~695 Million Tonnes/Year by 2050

Shell projects global LNG demand will increase from 422 million tonnes in 2025 to a median of around 695 million tonnes per year by 2050—a rise of roughly 65% . Shell's stated range is 610–780 million tonnes per year by 2050, with the midpoint near 695 million tonnes . The primary driver is Asia's coal-to-gas transition, with Asian economic growth and air quality goals underpinning structural demand growth . Shell's shareholder documentation also notes the company's outlook extends to 2050, with demand projected to rise 45–85% from 2025 levels .

Broader Market Disruptions: U.S. Exporters Gain Share

The crisis is accelerating a market shift. U.S. LNG exporters are gaining market share as Qatari and UAE supply is disrupted . Increased liquefaction output from North America is helping fill the gap . S&P Global analysis from March 2026 notes that Asia-Pacific markets bear the brunt of the disruption given their heavy reliance on Qatari and UAE cargoes . The ramp-up of new liquefaction facilities in North America, improved performance at existing plants, and slower Asian imports have partially offset the impact of reduced Middle Eastern supply .

Asian Demand Impact Estimate

The Gas Exporting Countries' Forum (GECF) reported Asian LNG imports fell 4.3% year-on-year in early 2026, directly attributed to supply cuts from Qatar and the UAE . The Strait of Hormuz closure removed roughly 1.5 million tonnes per week of supply (19% of global exports) . Third-party analysts, including Wood Mackenzie, estimated that Asian demand faced a potential shortfall of 4–5 million tonnes through Q3 2026 if disruptions persisted . Shell's Outlook warns that sustained disruption would significantly curb Asian offtake.

Key caveat: Many of the more granular figures (such as the exact 4–5 million tonne Asian demand shortfall) come from third-party analysts and commodity trackers, not directly from Shell's Outlook text. Shell's own published Outlook primarily emphasizes the flat trade scenario, the risk of contraction, and the long-term demand growth trajectory.