Estonia's Blunt Calculus: Stray Ukrainian Drones Are a 'Price Worth Paying' for Hitting Russian Oil

The Spiking Frequency of Incursions

The diplomatic theory is being severely tested by the raw numbers. Tsahkna and other Baltic officials have noted a sharp escalation in the frequency of stray drones as Ukraine's strikes intensify. According to data from the region, at least a dozen Ukrainian long-range drones entered the airspace or territory of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland in May 2026 alone—more than double the number recorded during the first four months of the year .

These are not merely radar ghosts. Concrete incidents include a drone impacting a power plant chimney in Auvere, Estonia, and another detonating in Latvia's Kraslava region . The situation escalated to the point where, on May 19, 2026, a NATO F-16 jet shot down a suspected Ukrainian drone over southern Estonia—marking the first time a NATO aircraft downed a Ukrainian drone in flight . The increasing frequency has caused significant disruption, prompting NATO fighter jets to be deployed multiple times in a single week .

Russia's Claims vs. Estonia's Counter-Accusation

Tsahkna has forcefully rejected Russian accusations that the Baltic states are allowing Ukraine to launch drone attacks from their territory. He called such claims "total fake news" and part of a deliberate Russian disinformation campaign . The Nordic and Baltic (NB8) nations issued a joint statement strongly condemning these false claims by Russia and Belarus .

Rather than accepting the narrative of Ukrainian incompetence, Tsahkna has turned the accusation back on Moscow. He stated that Russia is deliberately "guiding" stray Ukrainian drones toward NATO countries using electronic jamming and interference, specifically to weaken Western support for Ukraine and provoke a reaction . This aligns with Ukraine's own assertions that Russia is using electronic warfare to redirect drones .

The Economic Impact on Moscow

While Tsahkna has not cited a specific dollar figure, he has described Russia as "weaker today and feeling the impact of Ukraine's long-range strikes" . The broader economic damage from the drone campaign is compelling:

• Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries set a record in May 2026, prompting Moscow to ban jet fuel exports until the end of November due to the risk of domestic fuel shortages .
• Russian refinery processing rates have fallen to 16-year lows, and the International Energy Agency assessed that drone strikes would suppress Russia's refinery runs until at least mid-2026 .
• However, the Carnegie Endowment notes a mixed picture: refinery throughput fluctuated wildly, dropping below 4 million barrels/day after late-May attacks but bouncing back above 4.5 million barrels/day by early June . Russian seaborne crude exports actually climbed, as less crude was processed domestically and more was shipped abroad .

'Now Is Not the Time' for Talks

On the question of negotiations with Vladimir Putin, Tsahkna has taken a hardline stance. In mid-May 2026, he said "Now is not the time" for Europe to start direct talks with Russia, arguing that Ukraine currently holds stronger positions and the West should instead "finish Russia off with sanctions" .

He warned that engaging in direct talks would make the EU a "neutral mediator" instead of a party supporting Ukraine, and that Moscow is exploiting "false hopes for diplomacy to split the West" . In late June 2026, Tsahkna called on EU countries to show more "strategic patience" and increase pressure on Russia, stating that Tallinn sees no sign that Putin is ready for talks .

Tsahkna believes Putin sees Europe's participation in talks as beneficial for himself, especially as the US is no longer playing a leading role in negotiations . His consistent message is that the West should not negotiate under current conditions—instead, it should maintain and intensify sanctions and military pressure until Russia's position weakens enough to make meaningful talks possible.