OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035: 9% Farm Income Rise Faces a 25% Chance of Being Wiped Out

The baseline: modest growth, unevenly shared

Global average gross agricultural income per worker is projected to increase by 9 percent by 2035, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035, released June 29, 2026 . This growth is driven by productivity gains and broadly stable agricultural prices. Under stable conditions, global agricultural and fisheries production is expected to expand by 13 percent over the decade, with growth concentrated in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America .

The threat: persistent shocks could erase a decade of progress

The Outlook warns that this baseline is highly vulnerable to market volatility from crises and conflicts . The central concern is not a single catastrophic event, but the return of the frequency of shocks seen in recent years. The report's own stochastic analysis—which models the historical frequency of shocks to yields, macroeconomy, and energy prices—finds that there is a 25 percent probability that agricultural incomes in 2035 will be lower than current levels . In other words, the one-in-four scenario is not a gradual slowdown but a net , despite underlying productivity gains.