The threat: persistent shocks could erase a decade of progress

The Outlook warns that this baseline is highly vulnerable to market volatility from crises and conflicts . The central concern is not a single catastrophic event, but the return of the frequency of shocks seen in recent years. The report's own stochastic analysis—which models the historical frequency of shocks to yields, macroeconomy, and energy prices—finds that there is a 25 percent probability that agricultural incomes in 2035 will be lower than current levels . In other words, the one-in-four scenario is not a gradual slowdown but a net decline, despite underlying productivity gains.

Short-term risks are also significant. The recent energy price hikes and resulting reductions in fertilizer use are likely to affect agricultural production as soon as 2027 .

The Strait of Hormuz disruption: a supply shock already in motion

The most immediate manifestation of this risk is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which began at the end of February 2026. This has triggered a severe fertilizer supply shock that the report explicitly highlights as an acute risk .

• The World Bank Group's fertilizer price index rose more than 12 percent in Q1 2026, its sixth increase in seven quarters .
• Urea prices roughly doubled since the disruption began . The Near East usually supplies one third of global urea exports, with an estimated 2.6 million tonnes of exports suspended over two months .
• Nitrogen and phosphate prices have risen faster than agricultural commodity prices, compressing farm margins and accelerating

The threat: persistent shocks could erase a decade of progress

The Outlook warns that this baseline is highly vulnerable to market volatility from crises and conflicts . The central concern is not a single catastrophic event, but the return of the frequency of shocks seen in recent years. The report's own stochastic analysis—which models the historical frequency of shocks to yields, macroeconomy, and energy prices—finds that there is a 25 percent probability that agricultural incomes in 2035 will be lower than current levels . In other words, the one-in-four scenario is not a gradual slowdown but a net decline, despite underlying productivity gains.

Short-term risks are also significant. The recent energy price hikes and resulting reductions in fertilizer use are likely to affect agricultural production as soon as 2027 .

The Strait of Hormuz disruption: a supply shock already in motion

The most immediate manifestation of this risk is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which began at the end of February 2026. This has triggered a severe fertilizer supply shock that the report explicitly highlights as an acute risk .

• The World Bank Group's fertilizer price index rose more than 12 percent in Q1 2026, its sixth increase in seven quarters .
• Urea prices roughly doubled since the disruption began . The Near East usually supplies one third of global urea exports, with an estimated 2.6 million tonnes of exports suspended over two months .
• Nitrogen and phosphate prices have risen faster than agricultural commodity prices, compressing farm margins and accelerating